Yongle'sNewExpedition

Btc from a small-scale perspective, after hitting 74,900 in the one-hour intraday surge, it began to oscillate at a high level.
From an indicator standpoint, the MACD bullish momentum clearly increased, and did not significantly diminish.
Although there is a short-term pullback after the surge, I personally believe this pullback is part of a consolidation phase for accumulation.
The intraday pullback has already touched the dense chip area near 74,000 on the lower side.
I believe it will continue to push for a new high afterward.
My intraday plan is mainly to go long on dips.
Bitco

The weekend's focus was on Iran and the US negotiations in Pakistan, which indeed did not produce any results, but that was expected. Besides the high hopes during the ceasefire just now, after Israel continued its attacks on Lebanon, the chances of a one-time agreement have decreased significantly. However, as long as the US and Iran do not resume mutual attacks, the market will remain somewhat optimistic.
The market remains short-term optimistic, but this optimism could become fragile if oil prices rise again. Although WTI has stayed around $98 over the past week, risk markets are still quit

The US stock market is closed on weekends, so liquidity is low, and market sentiment is generally lukewarm. The focus over the weekend should be on the negotiations between the US and Iran in Pakistan. Currently, the Strait of Hormuz remains the biggest point of concern. A ceasefire in Lebanon might still be necessary, but Iran remains very firm on this issue. At present, there are no signs that the Strait of Hormuz has fully reopened, but WTI has already started to decline on Friday. Market expectations for these negotiations are still quite positive.
Based on current BTC data, this is how

Yesterday, two major macro items stood out. First is the CPI data. Although what was released was pretty high, it doesn’t have much impact on the market. After all, it’s collateral damage from the high oil prices brought by the war. The good news is that the US and Iran have already temporarily paused their hostilities, and market expectations for a ceasefire are still fairly high. So this CPI report has little effect, and the market has already fully priced in that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in the first half of the year.
The other item is the negotiations between the US

During the early hours, Ethereum's price once again experienced a rebound trend. Yesterday morning, the market was slightly pressured, with bearish forces tentatively suppressing the price. In the afternoon, selling pressure significantly increased, and the market showed a stepwise decline, with Ethereum dropping to a low of 2156, opening up some downside space. From the current technical pattern, the price has failed to break through the 2250 level effectively, and the hourly trend is still oscillating around the 2200 level. In the short term, trading volume has not shown a significant increa

Yesterday's article mentioned that I personally believe the main purpose of the upward movement is to break through the chip accumulation area around 70,000. Last night, just before the US stock market opened, there was another test of the neckline's minor high. Unfortunately, the defense was slightly too precise, and the short-term selling pressure around 72,800 still exists. Currently, the four-hour structure shows potential divergence risk, along with a short-term double-top trend. The intraday outlook continues to favor a bearish stance.
BTC: Short at 71,100-71,300, target 69,100

Bitcoin experienced two periods of accelerated upward movement this morning due to the "ceasefire" news impact. Currently, the short-term high price has surpassed 72,700. It’s impossible to chase the rally at this point. Although the news has temporarily paused the conflict, given Trump’s personality and credibility, there’s a high chance he could suddenly restart the conflict at any time. It’s not necessary to take the risk of chasing the tail-end of this rally. From the current perspective, this rebound is still quite strong, and the ceasefire news has the most significant influence on the p

This wave of hype is quite interesting. Last time, a media outlet reported that Iran was about to cease fire and actively seek peace with the U.S., only to find out it was outdated news. Yesterday, there was another report that Iran and the U.S. were preparing for a 45-day ceasefire, but both sides immediately denied it. The White House didn't even submit it for Trump's approval. Both times, the price increase was driven by information. Last time, it fell just before reaching $70,000, and this time, it was more robust, touching the $70,000 mark briefly.
Based on current Bitcoin data, the turn

Currently, from a macro perspective, although the Iran conflict is ongoing, its impact on BTC seems limited. It appears that the war may soon escalate to the next level. Trump's final deadline for Iran is likely the Monday US stock market open. Last time was TACO, and this time, it's uncertain what will happen.
The probability of another TACO is probably low, but if Trump’s statement that the US withdrawal from the Strait of Hormuz would make the passage smoother is true, then more ships have been passing through recently. Iran is now roughly divided into three categories: those completely unr

Today is Good Friday, and the US stock market is closed. The next trading session will be on Monday. The biggest hope now is that Trump won't cause any trouble over the weekend, but I think he's already done almost everything he could. The next three weeks are likely to focus on the Iran conflict. Today was also quite strange—oil prices kept rising, yet the US stock market actually rebounded, and there’s even a possibility it could close higher.
Although tomorrow is a holiday, the non-farm payroll data will still be released. While the data isn't as critical as before, it still has some market

Bitcoin briefly touched above 68,000 last night before quickly pulling back. On the one-hour chart, it also formed a TD13 at the top. In the early morning, the price retraced all the way down and is now trading around 67,000. Currently, on the hourly chart, after a round of correction, the price broke below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating a shift from support to resistance. The middle band now acts as a technical resistance level. On the four-hour chart, the overall trend remains weak. If the price cannot hold above 68,000 today, there is still a need for further downward co

Today, the price of U.S. crude oil finally surged past $100. Although it reached a high of $117 on March 9, it fell back within a few hours. Currently, the market not only does not expect a decline but also believes that oil prices could break through $150, or even higher. This clearly indicates that there is not much optimism about a short-term end to the war.
Today, Powell attended an event and delivered a speech, expressing concerns similar to those after the rate hike meeting. The Federal Reserve is caught in a dilemma; currently, the U.S. faces both downside risks in the labor market and