Currently, from a macro perspective, although the Iran conflict is ongoing, its impact on BTC seems limited. It appears that the war may soon escalate to the next level. Trump's final deadline for Iran is likely the Monday US stock market open. Last time was TACO, and this time, it's uncertain what will happen.

The probability of another TACO is probably low, but if Trump’s statement that the US withdrawal from the Strait of Hormuz would make the passage smoother is true, then more ships have been passing through recently. Iran is now roughly divided into three categories: those completely unrelated, such as China and Russia, which should find it easiest to pass; those with no direct conflict, like Europe, which can pass conditionally; and the US and Israel, which are completely blocked. The US also does not traverse the Strait of Hormuz, likely avoiding it altogether, probably due to Israel and some Middle Eastern countries. The key will be to see how far the conflict escalates if it intensifies on Monday. Just getting through the weekend safely would be good.

Looking at Bitcoin data, there hasn't been much movement in recent days. The turnover rate is quite low, and trading volume is also sluggish—typical weekend conditions. As long as there are no bad news, there generally won't be significant fluctuations.