The weekend's focus was on Iran and the US negotiations in Pakistan, which indeed did not produce any results, but that was expected. Besides the high hopes during the ceasefire just now, after Israel continued its attacks on Lebanon, the chances of a one-time agreement have decreased significantly. However, as long as the US and Iran do not resume mutual attacks, the market will remain somewhat optimistic.

The market remains short-term optimistic, but this optimism could become fragile if oil prices rise again. Although WTI has stayed around $98 over the past week, risk markets are still quite optimistic. Whether this optimism can last until next week is uncertain, so on Monday morning, we will see the reaction of Asian investors through CME, and after the US opens in the evening, we will observe the reactions of Europeans and Americans.

Over the weekend, Trump made some statements, announcing plans to block the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran is unlikely to be satisfied, as they are not a soft target. Currently, a temporary ceasefire is beneficial for both Iran and the US. We still hope to maintain restraint as much as possible, but opening the Strait of Hormuz may be difficult to achieve in the short term.

Looking at BTC data over the weekend, although there was some fluctuation, it remained within normal ranges. As I have been saying, this rebound is most likely due to the ceasefire rather than a reversal caused by a fundamental market trend. The reversal for the US and BTC, especially in the entire cryptocurrency sector, will probably depend on monetary policy.