The negative correlation between Bitcoin and global central bank monetary policy suggests that institutional capital has already positioned itself ahead of a potential easing cycle. In the recent spot ETF net inflows have hit a new high, but the market remains choppy and unstable, with weak demand. Corporate allocation has slowed, volatility in the options market has increased, and traders are more inclined to add downside protection.

On April 3, the crypto market continued to trade in choppy conditions. Bitcoin was consolidating around $67,000, maintaining its broader downward trend that began last October. The futures market saw thin trading, with Solana futures open interest hitting a new high, and the volatility index falling to its lowest level since February. Market structure indicates that short positions are increasing.

Bitcoin is trading sideways near $66,000, influenced by remarks by Trump on the situation in Iran. The shipping and insurance costs in the Strait of Hormuz reflect elevated risk. It is expected that an expanding supply shortfall will continue to weigh on Bitcoin and other risk assets, and in the short term the market may still remain choppy.

Global market performance looks stable on the surface, but internal imbalances remain. Geopolitical risks still exist. Countries are withdrawing liquidity and stabilizing their domestic currencies through different measures; the inflation logic has shifted somewhat, and a strengthening U.S. dollar reflects liquidity being withdrawn. In the crypto market, BTC is consolidating within a range-bound, choppy zone, with price volatility kept in check. In the short term, it’s necessary to watch for changes in the macro environment to find a trend breakout.

BlockBeats News, December 5 — The US will release September PCE inflation data tonight. As the Fed’s most closely watched price indicator, this result will directly impact the December interest rate decision. Currently, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut remains at 87%. The market expects the core PCE annual growth rate to be around 2.8%, slightly above the target but continuing a cooling trend. If the data comes in below expectations, it will strengthen the market narrative of a “soft landing” and the formation of an easing cycle. On the macro level, yesterday’s weaker ADP employment data has made the market even more sensitive to this inflation result. Meeting or coming in below expectations will put pressure on the dollar and support risk assets; if above expectations, sticky inflation may push up US Treasury yields, weaken rate-cut expectations, and trigger short-term avoidance of high-volatility assets. Overall sentiment remains cautious, with liquidity waiting for the event before repositioning. The crypto market continues its choppy trend, BTC

Bitcoin briefly broke above $93,000, boosting the entire crypto market, but several traders warned that this move could be a “false breakout,” as market structure remains fragile and volatility is still high. The core focus of the current market is whether Bitcoin can stabilize within the key support range of $90,000–$91,000. Analysts pointed out that Bitcoin quickly pulled back after breaking $93,000, indicating a lack of bullish momentum. Bitunix analysts stated that the current trend “looks more like a choppy correction” and noted that $93,200 has become a new resistance level. If Bitcoin falls below the key support zone, downside risks may increase again.