Bitunix Analyst: War Delay and Liquidity Contraction Resonance, BTC Stuck in 65K–72K Liquidation Zone

BlockBeats news, on March 27, the global market presented a structure of “surface stability, internal imbalance”: the passage of trade agreements in Europe and the U.S., the U.S. lifting some sanctions and delaying strikes on Iranian energy facilities, attempts to maintain stable expectations in policy and diplomacy. However, actual military resources have begun to be deployed to the Middle East, and geopolitical risks have not cooled but are instead being “priced in for later.” Meanwhile, Turkey’s massive gold sell-off, the EU raising trade costs, and Japan signaling currency intervention show that countries are synchronously using different tools to reclaim liquidity and stabilize their currency systems, as global funds shift from free flow to regional defense.

More importantly, the inflation logic has been re-anchored. Federal Reserve officials have clearly shifted the focus of risk from employment to inflation, indicating that policy tolerance is tightening, while the uncertainty around oil prices and war continues to squeeze “interest rate cut expectations” out of the pricing system. Japan’s rising interest rates and the yen approaching the intervention zone further amplify the risks of capital returning home and the reversal of interest rate differential trades. Against this backdrop, the strengthening of the dollar is no longer just a safe-haven response but a result of liquidity reclamation, as the global market enters a phase of passive deleveraging and asset repricing.

Returning to the cryptocurrency market, BTC has completely transformed into a reflector of liquidity structure. From the current price and volume structure, prices have been fluctuating repeatedly within a large range of about 65k–72k, with the volume distribution showing significant supply pressure above 70k, while near 65k, passive buying continues to accumulate. CVD is slowly recovering, but prices have not been able to reach new highs simultaneously; there is active buying, but it lacks continuity, representing absorption of selling pressure rather than driving the trend. At the same time, the large trader long-short ratio remains low, indicating that the market is still primarily conservative in its allocations, and leverage has not formed a one-sided tilt.

This structure essentially corresponds to the current macro environment—capital is unwilling to exit, but also unwilling to bear directional risks, leading to prices being continuously matched and cleared passively in liquidity-dense areas. In the short term, if the war merely maintains a “delayed but unresolved” state and interest rate expectations continue to tighten, BTC will tend to maintain high-frequency fluctuations within the range, completing chip transfers by sweeping liquidity between 65k and 72k. However, a true trend breakthrough will still require a consistent change in the three macro variables, rather than being driven by a single event.