Monetary Policy

Gate News message: On April 2, the People’s Bank of China added CITIC Bank, China Everbright Bank, Huaxia Bank, China Minsheng Bank, Guangfa Bank, Pudong Development Bank, Zheshang Bank, Ningbo Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Beijing Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Suzhou Bank as bank-type digital RMB business operating institutions, and they have been connected to the People’s Bank of China’s digital RMB system. After the newly added institutions complete business and technical preparations, they will carry out digital RMB business.

Rising U.S. consumer concerns about inflation pushed inflation expectations up to 6.2% in March, reaching a new high for 2025. Oil prices have broken above $100, which is expected to drive up the consumer price index, affecting economic activity and increasing pressure on the cost of living; it could also impact financial markets and investor sentiment toward crypto assets.

April 2, 2026, the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market fell 2.6%. Bitcoin dropped to $66,250, Ethereum is nearing $2,000, and major assets generally pulled back. Due to Trump making tough remarks about the Iran situation, risk-off sentiment intensified in the market, and funds are taking a wait-and-see stance in the short term. High interest rates and geopolitical risk together are weighing on prices; going forward, attention will be on developments in the Middle East and changes in macro liquidity.

In 2026, Russia will accelerate cryptocurrency regulatory reforms to address fiscal pressure. It plans to ban citizens from trading on platforms without local authorization and to strengthen taxation on licensed entities. Regulators intend to restrict access to overseas platforms through technical means, but industry insiders are cautious about the policy’s fiscal impact.

Trump recently said he would launch a fierce attack on Iran within the next few weeks. The market reacted strongly: the dollar rose while Asian stock markets fell. Nomura Securities warned that Asian currencies could weaken and that the risk of central bank intervention was increasing. Iran also countered Trump’s remarks, but they failed to ease tensions, and there has been no concrete commitment on the proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The United Kingdom plans to hold a diplomatic meeting to further negotiate.

On April 2, Paul Grewal, the Chief Legal Officer of a certain CEX, said in an interview that the debate over stablecoin yield in the United States’ soon-to-be released “CLEAR Act” is nearing an agreement. He emphasized that although there are disagreements, all parties recognize that other elements of the bill are just as important, and he is optimistic about the bill’s prospects. Grewal opposed conflating the issue of stablecoin yield with challenges facing the banking industry. The CEX and its CEO previously opposed a proposal to limit stablecoin rewards, saying it would harm innovation and consumers’ interests.

EDX Markets has recently applied to the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to establish a national trust bank, aiming to integrate into the traditional financial system and provide asset custody and management services. Influenced by the Trump administration, crypto industry regulation has been moving toward openness, and many companies such as Circle and Ripple have already obtained similar licenses. With its unique positioning, EDX focuses on serving traditional financial participants, and hopes to improve its compliance and strengthen its competitiveness by obtaining that license.

Market sentiment is rising despite a 25% decline, signaling early accumulation behavior. Macro factors like easing policy and weaker dollar support altcoin recovery potential. Infrastructure and narrative-driven tokens may lead the next market phase. The crypto market has plunged into a

The Solana Policy Institute, a Washington-focused nonprofit launched in late 2025 to advance blockchain-specific legislative and regulatory strategy, has characterized the current U.S. crypto policy environment as entering a materially new phase – one defined by implementation rather than

The U.S. Department of Labor proposed a rule allowing fiduciaries to include alternative assets like crypto in 401(k) plans, providing legal protections if they follow defined evaluation processes. This marks a shift toward integrating digital assets cautiously into retirement investing.

Gate News message, on April 1, a Federal Reserve official, Mousalem, said the Federal Reserve can reduce its balance sheet through two paths: first, by reducing the supply of reserves; second, by lowering the demand for reserves.

Gate News reports that on April 1, the President of the St. Louis Fed, Mousalem, stated on Wednesday at an event hosted by the American Enterprise Institute in Washington that energy shocks related to the war with Iran will definitely impact overall inflation and may exert pressure on core prices. Mousalem said, "I expect increases in commodity prices to feed into overall inflation on a one-for-one basis, and there will be a period of high overall inflation." He added, "Core inflation will also be affected to some extent by pass-through; I will closely monitor the degree of pass-through and the correlation between the two."

Gate News message: On April 1, Thomas Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, said it may be appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged for some period of time.

Gate News update: On April 1, Fed Governor Musalem and Fed Vice Chair Barr will deliver remarks one after another in about ten minutes.

Legislator Ko Ru-jün proposed adding Bitcoin and stablecoins to Taiwan’s foreign exchange reserves to strengthen the country’s ability to deal with future risks. The governor of the central bank, Yang Chin-long, said that its position remains unchanged and that it still takes a cautious view of these digital assets, especially due to concerns about price volatility and liquidity risk. Central banks around the world generally do not want to hold digital assets, and in the short term Taiwan is unlikely to implement this proposal; it will need more in-depth discussion of how it relates to foreign exchange reserves.

Richmond Fed President Barkin said that high oil prices are viewed as a short-term disruption and that there is no sign of a noticeable reduction in consumer spending. He added that rate hikes may need to be strengthened if inflation expectations rise, and there is currently no indication of that; rate cuts depend on inflation easing or the labor market weakening.

The US 10-Year Treasury Yield has fallen nearly 4.95% over the past five days, while the US 20-Year Treasury Yield declined by around 3.72%. This marks a sharp reversal from recent highs, as yields had climbed earlier due to inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions. The trend has now flipped,

Gate News, April 1, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points in April has fallen to 0.5%, down sharply from 12.4% on March 23; the likelihood of a rate hike is virtually negligible. Meanwhile, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in April is 99.5%.

Gate News update: On April 1, the U.S. will release its March ADP employment report tonight at 20:15 (known as “the little nonfarm,” a leading indicator for nonfarm employment data), followed by the release of the U.S. February retail sales month-over-month rate (known as “terrible data,” reflecting the strength or weakness of the consumer market). The market will get the latest data on the U.S. labor market and consumer market, and the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path may change accordingly.

Goldman Sachs analysts noted that although market volatility in interest rates has been severe since the war in Israel and Iran, the likelihood of rate hikes this year is low. Current supply shocks are limited, and the risk of inflation spillover is smaller. Monetary policy has also reduced the probability of further rate hikes.