Gate News: On March 18, a trader who previously predicted Donald Trump’s election victory and profited $1.9 million is now betting $425,000 that a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine will occur before 2027, with a current probability of 36%. The trader posted on social media: “The Ukraine war is obviously coming to an end… It’s hard to stop Russia and the US from ending the war together. When Russia started cutting off Kyiv’s electricity, they became extremely efficient, and the cost of sanctions on Russian energy just got higher. A 37-cent bet on a ceasefire price is very cheap.” To ease the economic pressure caused by recent Middle East tensions and soaring oil prices, the US government has begun relaxing some sanctions on Russian energy exports. Recently, Russia has intensified strikes on Ukraine’s critical energy infrastructure, leading to widespread blackouts in Kyiv and other areas. Ukraine has protested the US sanctions easing and reiterated that it will not trade territory for a ceasefire. There are disagreements within the EU, with some countries worried that shifting US strategic focus will fully transfer the financial and military burden of supporting Ukraine to Europe. Note: Based on its past trading patterns, this trader does not necessarily bet on whether the event will actually happen, but may take positions with profit-taking or stop-loss at certain points after opening. Account address: 0xd7f85d0eb0fe0732ca38d9107ad0d4d01b1289e4.
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