Prediction Market

Gate News message: On April 4, former Obama presidential campaign manager Stephanie Cutter joined prediction market platform Kalshi as a policy advisor.

On April 4, the NCAA “Final Four” is about to kick off. The University of Michigan has the highest chance to win the championship at 35%, while the University of Arizona is at 32%. The games will feature a matchup between the University of Connecticut and the University of Illinois, as well as a showdown between the University of Michigan and the University of Arizona.

Polymarket and PredicXion are expanding into Asian markets and launching Chinese-language support to drive localization. However, countries such as China and India lack clear regulation for blockchain prediction markets, and there are strict restrictions on gambling activities, which affects market expansion. The difference between prediction markets and gambling is their ability to aggregate information.

Polymarket removed a market tied to the fate of a missing US service member after mounting backlash, saying the listing violated its “integrity standards.” The controversy erupted after a prediction market appeared asking whether US authorities would confirm the rescue of a pilot reportedly shot

A prediction market platform removed markets about the fate of a missing American pilot for violating the “integrity standards,” triggering controversy. U.S. House lawmakers criticized such betting as “disgusting” and questioned rule transparency. Meanwhile, concerns about insider trading have intensified, and regulators are calling for stronger restriction measures.

A Nevada judge ruled that Kalshi’s sports prediction market products have no substantive difference from gambling, extended the injunction prohibiting it from offering related services locally until the case is further considered. Regulators believe it should be subject to the state’s gambling regulations.

A Nevada judge extended a ban on Kalshi's sports-related prediction markets, agreeing with regulators that they resemble illegal gambling. Kalshi argues they are federally regulated, prompting a broader legal conflict as state actions against prediction markets increase nationwide.

Polymarket’s prediction data shows that the probability of the "Claude Mythos" model released in April dropped sharply to 28%, while the probability of the model released in June rose to 53%. Related contract rules require that the model must be confirmed only after following specific naming conventions and being made publicly accessible, and Anthropic also prohibits users from "free-riding" on Claude.

FIFA and ADI Predictstreet have partnered to make it the official prediction market partner for the 2026 World Cup, for the first time introducing a prediction market mechanism to enhance fan engagement. Fans can use the platform to predict match results and other event data, and the ADI token price rises as a result.

In the first quarter of 2026, funding for crypto startups nearly reached $5 billion, down 16% year over year. Funds flowed into practical sectors, where prediction markets led the way, raising more than $1.7 billion. Top investment institutions are accelerating their entry, and major funding projects include Kalshi and Polymarket.

A certain account placed a $340k bet on a prediction platform, predicting that the 76ers would beat the Minnesota Timberwolves, with an opening average entry price of 6035¢. The game was held today, and both the 76ers and the Minnesota Timberwolves are ranked sixth in their respective divisions.

The prediction market platform Kalshi in the United States has hired Carter, a former aide to President Obama, as a policy adviser to strengthen ties with the government and address regulatory challenges. Carter’s addition symbolizes Kalshi’s proactive outreach in political circles, while also drawing attention to legal disputes and concerns about insider trading by political figures. Prediction market data is increasingly becoming an important reference for tracking social trends.

Kalshi announced the hiring of Stephanie Cutter, a former advisor to President Obama, to strengthen its relationships in Washington, D.C. amid scrutiny and lawsuits regarding its prediction markets.

The “Futures Events Exchange,” launched in Taiwan as early as 2006, combines academic research with market mechanisms and has become an important prediction market in the Chinese-speaking world. The platform trades using virtual currency to predict the likelihood of future events based on prices; some predictions performed better than polls, but later it shut down after a transition. Compared with Polymarket today, the Futures Events Exchange is more like an academic experiment.

Gate News message, April 3, former Obama presidential campaign manager Stephanie Cutter joined prediction market platform Kalshi as a policy advisor.

Polymarket’s probability for a ceasefire between the US and Iran before May 31 has fallen to 39%, down 12% within 24 hours. Total trading volume is approaching $85 million, and both sides must publicly confirm for a ceasefire to occur. Personnel changes in the U.S. military have triggered dissatisfaction among senior officials, adding to tensions.

Polymarket achieved $1.71 million in daily revenue on April 3, and for the first time introduced a fee for multiple categories through a new rate structure. At the same time, users holding POLY tokens can receive a fee discount, enhancing the token’s utility. Polymarket’s prediction data is also favored by traditional financial markets, influencing the global oil futures market and further demonstrating its commercial potential.

Gate News message, April 3, Polymarket prediction market data shows that the probability of USD.ai having an FDV over $100 million on the day after launch is 92%, the probability of over $150 million is 85%, and the probability of over $200 million is 50%. As of now, trading volume in this prediction market has already exceeded $2.5 million.

Polymarket has launched daily contracts tied to U.S. stocks and commodities, which are automatically settled using real-time price data from Pyth Network. The new contract formats include daily up-and-down contracts and settlement-price contracts, improving settlement efficiency and transparency. ICE is investing $600 million in Polymarket, signaling confidence in its potential.