Gate News message: In March, retail investors shifted toward selling on the stock sell-side. The total buy-side order volume fell nearly 50% from the January peak. On a weekly basis, capital inflows were only $5.0 billion, below the 12-month average level of $6.9 billion. Retail selling was spread across multiple sectors, especially energy stocks and storage-related stocks. Micron, SanDisk, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and Occidental Petroleum became the main sell targets. Apart from the “Seven Giants,” technology sector holdings fell to the lowest level in six months, indicating that retail investors tend to de-risk and reduce positions in every rebound.
Despite the pessimistic market sentiment, seasonal factors could drive a turnaround. Over the past 25 years, the MSCI Global Index’s average April return was +2.0%, with a positive-return probability as high as 75%. The S&P 500 Index’s average April gain was 1.3%, making it the second-highest month of the year. Historical data show that U.S. stocks account for about 70% weight in the global index, and seasonal tailwinds provide support for market bulls.
On the geopolitical front, news of a new ceasefire pushed risk assets higher. On expectations that the situation could ease, gold and U.S. and Asian equities generally rose, while oil prices fell. Bitcoin (BTC) today broke above $71,000, indicating that investors’ risk appetite has increased. The combination of retail investors’ extreme bearish sentiment and seasonal tailwinds could trigger a sharp reversal in market sentiment in the second quarter, providing potential upside momentum for risk assets.
Short-term market observations show that although retail selling has led to sell-side dominance, macro tailwinds and ceasefire news are providing support to both equities and crypto. Investors may want to watch for potential rebound opportunities and sector rotation trends, especially the performance of the energy, technology, and crypto asset sectors.
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