Polymarket Data: The probability of Opensea issuing a token before September 30 drops to 33%

Kalshi appeals Nevada event contract ban; CFTC jurisdiction dispute may reach the Supreme Court

Prediction market platform Kalshi has appealed a ruling by the state of Nevada banning its event contracts, and the U.S. Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals held oral arguments on April 17, but did not issue an immediate decision after the hearing. The core dispute in the case is whether Kalshi’s event contracts are “swap agreements” that fall under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), or whether they must be regulated by state-level activity under gambling licensing regimes. Multiple legal experts predict that the case may ultimately be appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court.

CFTC Chairman Selig: Prediction-market fraudsters will face harsh legal penalties; will not pause rulemaking

In a House hearing, U.S. CFTC Chairman Selig emphasized a “zero-tolerance policy” toward market fraud and manipulation. He responded to questions regarding a $500 million oil futures transaction and said the CFTC is drafting rules to regulate prediction markets. Selig also mentioned a cooperation memorandum of understanding with the SEC to strengthen oversight of digital assets. Given that the CFTC currently has only one commissioner—himself—Selig emphasized operational efficiency and will hire new staff to enhance regulatory capacity.

Prediction Markets Market Share Distribution Revealed, Kalshi Leads at 37.8%

Gate News message, latest data shows the market share distribution among prediction market platforms. Kalshi leads with 37.8% market share, followed by Polymarket at 35.3%. Opinion Labs xyz holds 14.4%, Predict dot fun accounts for 8.5%, and Crypto Com represents 2.5% of the market.

Polymarket Prediction Market Outperforms Wall Street Analysts in Earnings Forecasts, Study Shows

A study by Wolfe Research reveals that anonymous bettors on the Polymarket platform may predict corporate earnings more accurately than Wall Street analysts, with significant accuracy for both optimistic and pessimistic bets. Despite potential, these prediction markets account for a small trading volume.

Kalshi Launches Parental Portal and AI Verification to Combat Underage Misuse of Prediction Market

Kalshi is introducing a parental portal for identity verification and selfie authentication to prevent minors from bypassing age restrictions. This follows scrutiny over its compliance with prediction market regulations amid ongoing lawsuits.