Gate News reports that on March 10, a user with a history of seven successful trades related to MicroStrategy on the prediction market platform Polymarket invested $7,500 to buy “Nothing Happens: MicroStrategy” (betting “Yes”). The average opening price was 30¢, and the current price has dropped to 12.5¢. In all seven of this user’s previous trades, they held until settlement without taking profits, with an average opening amount of $2,500.
The “Nothing Happens” series of markets are all-in-one markets on Polymarket designed for specific topics, consolidating multiple individual markets into a single “Nothing Happens” market. According to the settlement rules, if by 11:59 PM Eastern Time on March 31, 2026, MicroStrategy triggers any of the following conditions, the market will settle as “No”: selling any Bitcoin, announcing holdings of over 750,000 Bitcoin, declaring bankruptcy, or being included in the S&P 500 index. If none of these events occur, the market settles as “Yes.”
Among these four trigger conditions, the biggest variable currently is whether MicroStrategy will announce holdings of over 750,000 Bitcoin. Yesterday (March 9), MicroStrategy announced it had increased its holdings by 17,994 Bitcoin, bringing its total holdings to 738,731 Bitcoin. It is only 11,269 Bitcoin short of the 750,000 threshold. Due to this ongoing accumulation, the probability that MicroStrategy will announce holdings exceeding 740,000 Bitcoin before March 31 has now risen to 98%.
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