Gate News update. On April 4, a research report from CICC said that the U.S.-Iran conflict drove oil prices sharply higher. Inflation risks took precedence, and market expectations for the Fed’s rate-cut path changed. This brought selling pressure to gold ETFs (gold exchange-traded funds) that had been increased more heavily last year. At the same time, a liquidity shock also fueled a short-term pullback through the futures and options market. The current geopolitical situation in the Middle East may be moving into a critical window. Oil prices face a choice between upside and downside, and the pricing focus in the gold market may shift toward assessing how supply shocks affect an economic recession. The already partially priced-in rate hike expectations may need to be revised. CICC believes that whether it is an oil-price pullback after a geopolitical downgrade, a return of monetary policy toward a more accommodative direction, or supply shocks that worsen recession pressure and trigger the value of gold as a safe haven, there may be room for gold investment demand and prices to recover upward.
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