BlockBeats news, on March 29, “BTC OG insider whale” agent Garrett Jin stated, "Easter weekend (April 5 to 6) is considered the most likely time window for the U.S. to escalate actions against Iran. The timeline, political factors, and military deployments all point to this node. If not then, it’s just a matter of time. If conflict escalation occurs: the U.S. and Israel will launch combined air and ground strikes; Congress will be in recess, European markets will be closed, and by the time London opens on Tuesday, the global landscape may have changed.
Once war breaks out, the chain reaction will be: the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed (insurance invalid means no shipping); Brent crude oil surpassing $120 per barrel; U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rising above 4.6%; within weeks, the global bond market may evaporate $2.5 trillion; the banking system will face losses approaching levels seen during the 2022 crisis; there will be no clear path to a ceasefire.
The Federal Reserve will face a dilemma, unable to achieve all three: controlling inflation (which requires raising interest rates), preventing a banking crisis (which requires lowering interest rates), and financing the war (which requires lowering rates). Historical experience shows that during wartime, inflation targets are often sacrificed. The Fed will maintain interest rates around 3.5%–3.75%, implementing “financial repression” through implicit liquidity and regulatory tools to push real interest rates into negative territory, thereby eroding debt.
Nominally the stock market may rise, but actual purchasing power will decline. Energy, military, and commodities will outperform; technology and consumer sectors will face reevaluation. War is not a solution to the debt problem, but rather a manifestation of the debt problem. The real risk lies not on the battlefield, but in the bond market—when the demand for Treasury auctions weakens, the system will face fundamental changes."
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