Gate News reports that on March 16, according to PolyBeats monitoring, four new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket have collectively wagered $548,700 betting on the fall of the Iranian regime within the year. Among these, $136,600 is bet on “The Iranian regime will fall before May,” currently priced at 15.5¢; and $322,200 is bet on “The Iranian regime will fall before June 30,” currently priced at 28.5¢.
According to settlement rules, a “Yes” outcome requires that the current Iranian regime be overthrown, collapsed, or cease to govern, and that the core power structures (such as the Supreme Leader’s Office, the Guardian Council, and the Revolutionary Guards led by religious authorities) be disbanded, incapacitated, or replaced by a new government. Routine elections, leadership changes, or internal coups that retain the core structures do not meet the settlement criteria.
Recently, the U.S. military conducted strikes on Iran’s key energy hub, Kharg Island, targeting military sites such as missile shelters, deliberately avoiding Iran’s oil terminals that handle 90% of its crude exports. Domestically, the decentralized power structure built by former Supreme Leader Khamenei has maintained the regime’s operation despite severe damage to top leadership, but this structure also increases the risk of factional splits within the regime.
Additionally, ongoing conflict has caused severe shortages of water resources and fuel, power outages, and supply chain disruptions across many parts of Iran. The country has experienced nearly complete internet outages for 13 consecutive days. Iran’s Foreign Minister publicly announced that the Strait of Hormuz is closed only to the United States, Israel, and their allies; ships from other countries are free to pass.
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