CME data shows that the probability of Federal Reserve rate cuts has dropped to zero, while the probability of rate hikes has increased to 12.4%. Market interest rate expectations have undergone rapid repricing, causing Bitcoin's price to fall back to $68,739. Rising crude oil prices and increased inflation expectations have further diminished the appeal of crypto assets. Analysts remind that the higher the probability of rate hikes, the lower institutional interest in Bitcoin, with the market facing pressure in the short term.

On March 21st, the U.S. stock market opened lower and closed lower overall, with all three major indices ending in the red. The Dow Jones fell 0.97%, the S&P 500 declined 1.51%, and the Nasdaq dropped 2.01%. Technology stocks performed poorly, with Super Micro Computer plunging over 33%. Cryptocurrency concept stocks were also hit, with multiple individual stocks declining.

March 20: Bitcoin rebounded to $70,800, up over 1%, as multiple countries pledged to ensure passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Energy market shifts drove oil prices lower, but Middle East tensions create uncertainty, with traditional market bearish signals affecting crypto assets. Bitcoin's short-term movement remains driven by macro factors, with $70,000 as a key level to watch.

Lido is advancing community staking module upgrades by introducing the "Identified DVT Cluster" (IDVTC) mechanism to optimize Ethereum staking structure, lower participation barriers, and enhance network security and stability. Each IDVTC comprises vetted stakers and leverages Distributed Validator Technology (DVT) to reduce systemic risk and increase decentralization. This feature will launch in 2026, demonstrating Lido's commitment to strengthening system resilience through architectural optimization while maintaining competitiveness.

On March 12, the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio showed bullish divergence, indicating weakening selling pressure and potentially marking a reference point for Bitcoin's long-term trend bottom. Bitcoin ETF saw net inflows of approximately $906 million, while Gold ETF experienced single-day outflows of $3 billion, forming a significant divergence. Despite ETF trading volume being lower than US stocks, there remains substantial room for institutional participation. Historically, Bitcoin has often rebounded following geopolitical turmoil.