Defioasis

Who’s script has crashed?
Predict Fun's trading volume today has surged to over $86 million (nominal trading volume exceeds $160 million), hitting a new all-time high.
Trading volume is concentrated in the Sports sector.
Further investigation shows that the “Golden State Warriors” in the 2026 NBA Championship event on this platform has a total trading volume of $176 million.

I have to say, Polygon really should give Polymarket a pat on the back.
Since entering 2026, the daily fees contributed by Polymarket to the Polygon network have never been below 50%.
In other words, Polymarket alone has supported half of the Polygon network's fees.

On-chain prediction market fees first surpass $10 million in a single week
Polymarket fees continue to soar, reaching $9.8 million, setting a new high, accounting for 96.9% of on-chain prediction market fees
According to that week's calculations, Polymarket's annualized fees have exceeded $500 million

Polymarket Builders 分发前端周交易量达 1.89 亿美元，大幅创下历史新高
交易量 >$5m 的 Builders：
- betmoar $61.47m
- PolyCop $19.74m
- WagerUpPilot $18.3m
- PolyTraderPro $10.19m
- Polymtrade $8.48m
- Kreo $6.27m
- Gate $5.73m
- StandTrade $5.7m
- Chance $5.36m
- Polygun $5.35m

After a month and a half, Predict Fun's daily trading volume has returned to 20 million USD (nominal trading volume of 40 million USD), accounting for nearly 70% of the BSC prediction market share.
However, the day's trading was mainly concentrated on the event "Will Bitcoin fall below 20k USD in April," with this single event's trading volume exceeding 18 million USD.
Currently, the total assets on the Predict Fun platform (including holdings and trader balances) exceed 34 million USD, with trader balances recently surpassing 15 million USD.

The intensity of Polymarket's Crypto 5-minute Up or Down market is evident.
As the most volatile trading market for bots, the number of daily trading addresses continues to rise steadily.
Recently, over 35,000 to 37k trading addresses compete within 5 minutes each day, consistently contributing over $20 million in daily trading volume.
The top trading addresses have already contributed a total of over $44 million in trading volume in the 5-minute market.

Polymarket Builders logs a day of record-breaking trading volume and trading users
A total of over 6,800 traders across 290 distributed Builders completed $33 million in trading volume
Of these, 10 Builders contributed more than $1 million in trading volume
Betmoar still leads Polymarket Builders’ trading volume, but its market share has fallen to about 30% as the number of competitors increases

Ghost story, Opinion's open interest has fallen to just above $10 million.
Opinion's peak open interest exceeded $150 million, decreasing by 93.5% over the past two months.

During the full week of March 30 when fees were fully implemented, Polymarket captured $6.8 million in fees, equivalent to an annualized fee of $355 million.
Meanwhile, Polymarket significantly boosted on-chain prediction market fees to over $7 million in a single week, of which it accounted for 96.8%.
Currently, Polymarket's daily fee capture remains stable around $1 million, and Taker trading volume continues to stay high with no obvious decline.

How high is the overlap between prediction markets and Perp DEX?
Polymarket has over 2.5 million user addresses (Owner behind Proxy)
Hyperliquid has over 660k user addresses
The intersection of their user addresses is 68.4k
Accounting for 2.73% of Polymarket user addresses and 10.25% of Hyperliquid user addresses
Just considering Hyperliquid, at least over 10% of Perp DEX users are also Polymarket prediction market users
Hyperliquid is working on HIP-4, and Perp DEX starting to develop its own prediction markets is a natural move.

Polymarket has entered a fully paid era, with costs rising significantly in recent days.
The latest full-day fee on April 1st was $927,000, and it is expected that daily costs may exceed $1 million in the coming days.
Based on the April 1st daily fee, Polymarket's annualized cost is equivalent to $338 million.

Suddenly realized it's been a long time since I checked the BSC prediction market situation.
- The BSC prediction market holdings are almost flat, with little inflow or outflow.
- Predict Fun has over $15 million in holdings, surpassing Opinion, which at its peak had nearly 7 times the holdings of Predict Fun.
- Fees used to be another point of pride for Opinion, but now its daily fee capture ability has fallen below that of Predict Fun.
- Only Predict Fun's daily traders remain in the thousands.
Summary: It's not dead, just cooled off.

Based on the Polymarket Trump China visit event prediction data, it appears the secrecy around the visit was quite well-maintained, as we haven't seen addresses with exceptionally large profits.
Over 13,000 Polymarket addresses participated in predicting the Trump China visit timing, with cumulative trading volume exceeding $10 million:
- 10 addresses had PnL profits exceeding $10,000, totaling $161,000 in gains; the biggest winner was WarriorPooh with a profit of $29,300
- Meanwhile, 8 addresses had PnL losses exceeding $10,000, totaling $206,000 in losses; the biggest loser was minisobaby wi

Prediction markets still come down to the two giants: Polymarket and Kalshi
Polymarket has maintained taker trading volume exceeding $1 billion for four consecutive weeks, reaching $1.15 billion in the past week to hit a new high
At the same time, Polymarket fees have reached new highs for three consecutive weeks, with weekly fees nearly reaching $2 million in the past week, accounting for over 80% of on-chain prediction market fees
On the other side, Kalshi has achieved taker trading volume exceeding $1 billion for six consecutive weeks, reaching $1.24 billion in the past week, also hitting a

Filtering Polymarket Insiders is quite challenging, with too much noise and often just guessing based on empty addresses, only to find out gradually afterward. Particularly, those large profitable trades are typically one-time addresses with no practical utility.
This time the main focus is on compressing PnL into the range of tens of thousands to over one hundred thousand dollars in low-frequency trading addresses to provide observation samples. Sharing 2 suspected Insider addresses on Polymarket that have been under observation and remain active:
1. fromagi: 0x976685b6e867a0400085b1273309e84

Unnoticed, since mid-January, Polymarket has cumulatively captured over $12 million in Taker Fees.
Of which over $5 million has been captured this month, and although the month hasn't ended yet, it has already set a new monthly record.
Based on the past few weeks maintaining $1.5-1.8 million in weekly fees, Polymarket's annualized fees are approximately $75-95 million.
Currently, Polymarket charges Taker Fees on four major markets: 5min, 15min, NCAAB college basketball, and Serie A. If rumors prove true and comprehensive fee collection is fully launched in the future, annualized fees will furt

New Top 3? 🧐
After launching Season3, Myriad's traders and transaction volume on the BSC prediction market skyrocketed
- Daily traders account for ~17% market share
- Daily transaction volume surged to 44,000 transactions, exceeding the combined volume of Opinion and Predict Fun
However, as a multi-chain prediction market, Myriad's main trading volume is concentrated on Abstract, with very low daily trading volume on BSC
High transaction count with low trading volume—a typical farming characteristic. Not sure if you still remember the fear of getting counter-farmed and liquidated by OPN 🥲
My

Polymarket's high-frequency 5min & 15min markets continue to expand their offerings. Building on BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP, the platform has newly added DOGE, HYPE, and BNB.
The 5min and 15min markets have become an important source of Taker fees for Polymarket. Among these, the 5min market maintains daily trading volume exceeding $20-30 million, with daily active traders approaching 30,000.
Over the past week, Polymarket's weekly Taker fees reached a new high of $1.84 million, accounting for 76.3% of on-chain prediction market fees. These fees will continue to be used for Makers Rebates to incen

Measured by average trading volume over the past 7 days
The two major prediction markets on BSC, Opinion and Predict Fun, each hold less than 2% market share
Currently, third place competition is heating up, with Limitless showing impressive trading volume growth over recent period, and its market share now closely follows the aforementioned two
However, the head effect in prediction markets remains very strong, with Kalshi and Polymarket respectively occupying 49.78% and 44.42% market share
Kalshi and Polymarket are the iron strongholds, while third place is constantly changing