Jamesvanst

It looks like another bitcoin CME gap forms on Monday

The two scarcest things on the planet right now is bitcoin and compute.

The Fed Balance Sheet is up $150B from the lows 🔥

Iran demanding payment in bitcoin makes sense, as countries try to transition away from US dollars.
But the issue for a global settlement layer is privacy.
The Bitcoin transaction is always public, the workaround is conjoin but has compliance/scalability issues.
Bitcoin is better than gold, and stablecoins can be frozen.
Don’t say lightning, it’s failed and quantum will enhance centralisation, effectively making layer 2s and lightning redundant.

Iran demanding payment in bitcoin makes sense, as countries try to transition away from US dollars.
But the issue for a global settlement layer is privacy.
The Bitcoin transaction is always public, the workaround is conjoin but has scalability issues.
Bitcoin is better than gold, and stablecoins can be frozen.
Don’t say lightning, it’s failed and quantum will enhance centralisation, effectively making layer 2s and lightning redundant.

IBIT buyers got in at $40k and saw a 200% return in less than two years.
Morgan Stanley buyers got in at $70,000, a 200% return in two years is $210,000. Probable.

By the time oil was breaking substantially lower in June 2022 bitcoin was below the 200WMA and realized price.
In 2026, with oil breaking substantially lower, bitcoin is above both metrics.

Out of the 27 trading days since the war started, bitcoin has seen the least amount of down days (14).
Down Days
TLT: 69%
S&P 500: 58%
Gold: 56%
Bitcoin futures: 52%

Strategy accounts for about 7% of gross inflows into Bitcoin currently.
Unless we are in a full-blown mania where the company is buying 50k BTC a week like November 2024, they aren’t affecting the price.
Same set-up with ETFs, it’s a nice narrative

Its now been 178 days since the October 10 crash.
FTX collapsed 182 days after Luna.
I think crypto's internal recession is over and is now back trading inline with the macro.

Bitcoin made its local low on February 6, exactly 60 days ago.
The November to January consolidation was just under 70 days ago.
A move out of this range is likely by the end of this week

Pretty much 50% of the conversations I overhear are about how expensive everything is.
And we haven’t even seen the effects of the oil spike yet.

I was speaking with a US broker and liquidity provider.
They said that once the crypto CME futures and options moves to 24/7 trading in May, they see this as a major turning point for crypto.
Liquidity should deepen, further convergence between crypto and TradFi, acceleration of institutionalisation.
They are in the process of hiring dozens of additional risk analysts to cover weekends and manage continuous exposure.

This industry should be embracing the quantum challenges and not fighting it.
Tech is all about building innovation and overcoming challenges.
Bitcoin tech has been a non discussion for years, and makes it interesting again.

If Bitcoin heads back to $60k, over 10M coins will be underwater, which will be over 50% of the supply (an extra 500k BTC from the Feb lows that have bought in this range).
10M+ coins underwater has marked bottoms in every bear market.
Because of institutional adoption and no blow-off top, Bitcoin could bottom above the 200WMA and realized price, which wouldn’t surprise me.