AxelAdlerJr

Oil prices climbed back above $100 per barrel on Thursday after President Trump said the war with Iran could last for several weeks and warned that the United States would strike Iran very hard. Both WTI and Brent rose by more than 6%, respectively.

Fear & Greed is now showing almost the same sentiment structure as in 2022. But the 365DMA is still too high for a full bear-market reset.

Bitcoin has already absorbed -$64.2B in realized losses since October 2025.
That sounds brutal.
But the 2021-2022 bear market absorbed -$125.2B. That distinction matters more than most investors realize.
Morning Brief 139 👇

Most traders/investors watch price. Very few ask whether that move is actually supported by capital.
This model does. It separates Bitcoin into 5 market states and shows which ones historically delivered the best long entries, which ones marked late-cycle risk, and where rebound setups usually appeared.
That is the difference between following the cycle and getting trapped inside it.
SQL of the Week #018 👇

The morning tone across global markets looks positive: Asia and Europe are driving the bullish impulse, while the U.S. and crypto are only cautiously confirming the broader improvement in sentiment.

Bitcoin Profit Structure Has Not Reset Yet via @cryptoquant_com

Price is down. Network spending is not. 532K daily spending transactions vs 473K SMA-30D. Meanwhile, dolphins, whales and fish still hold 68% of all BTC supply. Coins are moving. But the structure still doesn't look like capitulation.
☕️ Adler AM #138 👇

Sales pressure is rising. If Bitcoin drops to $54K Realized Price - it goes abnormal.

Bitcoin is not decoupling from equities. It's just getting weaker.
New ☕️ Adler AM 👇

Google Quantum AI said that breaking the widely used ECC-256 may require far fewer resources than previously thought fewer than 500K qubits and only a few minutes. Against that backdrop, the company is urging the industry to accelerate the transition to post-quantum cryptography.

The U.S. Senate Banking Committee plans to hold a hearing on Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Federal Reserve Chair.

Oil prices continue to rise. Crude futures started the week higher, with WTI trading above $101 per barrel. Investors are growing more skeptical about a quick resolution to the conflict with Iran after Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen widened the scope of the conflict, while Donald Trump said the U.S. could "take the oil in Iran" and is considering the seizure of Kharg Island.

The U.S. Treasury yield curve steepened further. Investor focus is gradually shifting away from the oil-and-inflation narrative toward risks to economic growth and financial stability. On Friday, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose as high as 4.48% - its highest level since the start of the Middle East conflict - before closing at 4.44%. As of today, it has eased back to 4.40%.
At the same time, the widening spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasuries over recent sessions confirms a further steepening of the curve.

Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said the balance of risks has shifted toward higher inflation, while the labor market, in her words, is "generally balanced, but that balance remains fragile."
Fellow Fed Governor Michael Barr and Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson also signaled a preference for keeping rates at the current level, as policymakers assess how the conflict and higher energy prices could affect economic growth and inflation.

Global equity markets continued to decline and for the S&P 500 this marked a fifth straight losing week, as tensions in the Middle East continue to suppress risk appetite. On Friday, the S&P 500 fell 1.7%, bringing its weekly loss to 2.1%. Brent crude rose above $100 per barrel and remains elevated amid persistent supply disruption concerns.
The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed in practical terms, keeping physical oil market tensions high, while hopes for a diplomatic resolution continue to fade - including against the backdrop of the ongoing buildup of U.S. military presence in the Mi

Short-term holders are trapped.
STH Realized Price: $85KBTC price: $67K
That puts the average short-term holder $18,000 underwater.SOPR has stayed below 1.0 for 110+ straight days.
And STH Realized Price YoY just turned negative for the first time since the 2022 bear market.
This is what prolonged market stress looks like.
Full brief below 👇

This week, the Weekly Engine reassembled all the market's key signals. On the surface, the structure still looks unstable, and beneath it enough weak points remain that single indicators cannot be trusted - only a full reading across all 7 data layers.
The key questions now: will pressure from LTH intensify, is the macro backdrop RISK OFF or RISK ON and should you open positions - and in which direction?
All the answers are in the latest Weekly Engine breakdown at the link below: 👇

Bitcoin🩸Long Liquidations
Yesterday, the market wiped out $413M in long positions, 3x above the quarterly average. Not an apocalypse (the quarterly record sits at $688M), but firmly in the top decile.
The market just reminded everyone who's in charge.

MARA Holdings, Inc. Announces $1.0 Billion Repurchase of 0.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2030 and 2031 and Sale of 15,133 Bitcoin

Moody’s Analytics raised the probability of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months to 48.6%, while Goldman Sachs increased its estimate to 30%.