GateUser-3b3659cc

The odds of the S&P 500 making a new ATH in Q2 after retracing 75% of the downtrend are 84%, but beware the 1966 case which turned into a 23% crash into October.

$TSLA - The minimal downside target remains the 100 week MA at 331 which will likely be hit next week. A weekly close below the 100 week MA may lead to further downside to the 1st yearly support at 276.

$NVDA - Closed the week above the 20 week MA which indicates that it may have made an intermediate term low last week, but that will be confirmed only if it breaks the pattern of lower highs and lower lows, and that will happen only when it trades above $197.63.

$MSFT - Failed regaining the 200 week MA this week. Therefore, it's still at risk of dropping to the 345-350 major support range.

$META was up 19.81% over the last 2 weeks. This 2 week rally is on par with the 2 week 19.05% rally after the April 2025 low, which means that it probably made an intermediate term low 2 weeks ago. It has to close above the 20 week MA(639) in order to confirm that.

$AMZN was up 13.64% this week. It was the biggest up week since the bear market low in January 2023. It closed the week above the 20 week MA, confirming that it made an intermediate term low in February. We'll find out if it leads to a new ATH, after earnings at the end of April.

$USOIL - The weekly bearish engulfing candle is further evidence to what I claimed since the March 9 top, that a major top was in. Technically, it hasn't been confirmed yet. That will happen only when the price of oil closes below the 10 week MA.

$Silver - The bounce out of the March low should continue into late April. The target could be as high as the 78.6% retracement of the March down leg at 88.84. Overall, it's just another bounce in a developing bear market.

$SPX - Ended a 7 day up streak after almost reaching the 78.6% retracement of the late January to late March downtrned at 6855. The March 30 low was confirmed as an intermediate term low but it needs a close above 6855 to get back to the all time high at 7K.

$IGV - Broke the major support at $76, but has reached the 62% retracement of the 2022-2025 bull market at $74, so it can't be ruled out that this is not a real breakdown. However, a close below $74 will lead to a decline to the next major support, the October 2023 low at $65.

May 12, 2025 April 23, 2025 May 18, 2020 March 24, 2020

$BTC - Still underperforming stocks. The stock indices have broken over their March 17 high, Bitcoin is still below it. In order to confirm an intermediate term low it has to close above the 100 day MA that is currently at 75970. Not doing so will lead to a new low in Q2.

$SPX - Gapped above the 200 day MA and closed above the 62% ret. level at 6740. If it closes the week above the 200 DMA a multi week low will be confirmed. The next resistance is the 78% ret. at 6855 and it has to be cleared in order to prevent a bearish scenario like 2022.

In order for today's stock market rally to be sustainable, in the absence of a Zweig Breadth thrust, we need a 90% up volume day or a 90% advances day on the NYSE. At the moment we have neither of those happening.

That's interesting. In all of these cases the S&P 500 was still in a longer term downtrend and did not make a new ATH following the close above the 200 day MA.

Saw a post from 10 hours ago: $SPX is back above the 200 day MA. It was a false breakdown. Even a close above the 200 DMA won't rule out a failed rally like March 2022 or a bear trap like March 2025. A WEEKLY close above the 200 DMA will only rule out the 2025 case.

That is false. The last time the 10 day EMA of advancing issues was below 0.40 was on March 20, so the required 10 trading day window for getting a Zweig Breadth Thrust has already passed. There can be no ZBT this time. Trust AI at your own risk.

$SPX - 4th up day in a row and approaching the 200 day MA. The most likely scenario is hitting the 200 DMA and then turning down again for another down leg. Obviously, a ceasefire agreement with Iran will probably invalidate another down leg, but I don't see it happening.