Ahao001

Previously, two operational paths for BTC were distinguished: the red path—another high point above 76,000; the blue path—a rebound from 65,000 that does not break 76,000. The common point between the two is that after the rebound starting from 60k ends, the downward trend will continue. So the question is, has the rebound from 60k ended?
This week's market movement has once again added suspense. If today BTC breaks through the angle at the intersection of the two Gann angles (marked in red) and tomorrow morning's daily and weekly candles both close above this intersection, then there is a hig

Gold accelerated its rally yesterday after a temporary easing of the US-Iran conflict, but no sustained follow-through was seen afterward, which validates the view that "the rise here is essentially just a rebound." Specific historical events and news only accelerate the market’s pace but do not change its overall trend.
If the rebound from 4100 corresponds to the blue downward segment in the chart, then it has already met the basic requirements, meaning the rebound is about to end or has already ended. If the price then breaks below 4553, it confirms that gold will follow the blue route.
If t

BTC this morning experienced an upward surge due to news factors. Regarding the US-Iran issue, I think it's still a bit early to say it has been fully resolved. My impression is that it's more about delaying time rather than truly ending. We won't speculate too much on the specific reasons.
The rally from $60k in BTC is a rebound. Based on the rebound levels, two potential paths—red and blue—have been outlined for the subsequent trend.
Red Path: The rebound from $60k targets the entire decline from $126,000 to $60k. Under this path, a breakthrough above $76,000 is allowed to create a new high

Gold did not break below 4600 and experienced a sharp surge this morning driven by news factors.
Therefore, today's tweet has made a slight adjustment to the small-level analysis of gold, mainly based on the rebound level starting from 4100.
Red line: The movement of gold from 4100 is a rebound of the entire decline from 5600 to 4100. If it can break through the 4910-4930 level and stay above it in the near term, the likelihood of this route will increase. The subsequent rebound target for gold will be near the historical high, with 5300-5450 as a possible endpoint.
Blue line: The rebound of

At the moment, I believe the probability of BTC breaking above 76,000 in the short term is decreasing, unless a major historic event occurs—such as a breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations or a complete resolution of the Strait of Hormuz passage issue—after which it may be possible to push through 76,000. However, even then, this move that starts from 60,000 is very likely just a rebound. After the rebound ends, BTC still needs to break below. Based on this, my trading strategy in the near term is still mainly trend shorts, with short-term long orders as a supplement. There has never been a trad

The decline from CRCL136.6 is a correction. After the correction ends, CRCL will continue to rise.
Currently, it depends on whether it can quickly break through the 96.5 level. If it can break through and stabilize above the red resistance zone shown in the chart, the correction for CRCL may be over. Under this scenario, CRCL has been running from 83 in a rise at the same level as 49.6-136.6.
If it cannot break through 96.5 in the near term, then the move from 83 is a small-scale rebound. Once the rebound ends, CRCL will continue to move downward to find the end of the correction. Even if it f

The main position is empty, reduce leverage.
There isn't much room above; on the 4-hour chart, there's a strong resistance zone between 70,500 and 72,000, which can be used for shorting.

The main position is empty, so reduce leverage.
There isn’t much room above; on the 4-hour chart, there’s a high-quality pressure/resistance zone between 70,500 and 72,000, which can be used to add to the short.

Assuming Bitcoin's rebound point is at 76,000, based on the 60k starting point for BTC, then the drop from 76,000 to 65,000 is the first wave of decline. The movement from 65,000 to the present is a rebound against the decline from 76,000 to 65,000. Currently, this rebound has met the basic requirements, and after it ends, BTC will continue to decline. This is the scenario depicted by the blue route in the chart, and also the route I believe has a higher probability.
Yesterday, some friends mentioned that since BTC has not fallen below 65,000 after reaching 4.2, an even higher peak above 76,00

Hello everyone, I am Ah Hao. We are currently in the mid-stage of a bear market. Assuming 76,000 is the rebound endpoint from 60k, and then another wave of decline similar to the 97,900→60k drop occurs, then the most intense wave of decline in the bear market will be basically complete. At that point, the total decline from 126,000 will have reached 80%-90%.
But in a bear market, you can't just look at the decline and price; another important dimension is time. If in Q3 2026, BTC drops to 52,000 or even 48,000, we will enter the late stage of the bear market. This period may manifest in variou

Hey guys, at 8:30 PM tonight, the U.S. March unemployment rate data will be released.
Most financial markets are closed.
It seems only the crypto market is open for trading tonight, haha.
Crypto traders should be prepared for the U.S. unemployment rate announcement.
Due to the Qingming Festival, the A-shares market will be closed from April 4th to April 6th.
Due to Good Friday, the U.S. stock market will be closed tonight on April 3rd.
Tonight at 8:30 PM, only the crypto market is still open for trading.
Get ready for the unemployment rate data!

The two trends in Bitcoin Chart 2 are based on 76,000 as the rebound endpoint:
Red: Starting from 76,000, a new downtrend begins. Recently, BTC hit a new high above 60,000 and a low below 65,000 (e.g., 62,000–63,000), completing the first wave of decline. Then it rebounds against the first wave, and after the rebound ends, a second wave of decline begins, which will break below 60,000.
Blue: Breaks through 60,000 directly and continues downward.
Therefore, the main task moving forward is to short on rallies, of course, I am referring to trend shorts.

Gold retreated last night after encountering resistance in our observation zone. The next two days require extra attention.
If the blue route shown in the chart is valid, then no new highs above 4800 are allowed, and the pullback starting at 4800 should be sufficiently long and deep. If the pullback only lasts one or two days and then breaks above 4800 again, gold will follow the red route.
Assuming 4800 is the end of the first wave rebound starting from 4100, then gold will complete a pullback early next week and still have a subsequent upward move of similar magnitude between 4100 and 4800.

If we consider the rebound from 4100 as a simple three-wave upward movement, then the strength of the current first part will directly determine the overall height of this rebound:
If gold cannot break through the blue zone shown this week, then the first wave of upward movement is likely to end, followed by a correction targeting the first wave. After the correction, there will be another upward move of the same level. It’s important to note that if the blue zone is not broken, this subsequent correction could be quite deep, which will be a good opportunity for us to enter long positions.
If

ETH's overall structure remains unchanged from yesterday and continues to follow the established path. The rebound from 1748 has entered its final stage; the earliest point for a rebound this week or next week could be the end or a turning point for market acceleration.
The only current concern is whether there will be a new high above 2386. Moving forward, pay attention to two things:
1. After 8:00 AM on April 3rd, no new lows below 1940 are allowed; otherwise, there is a high probability that no new highs will appear later. Even if they do, it will only be a quick spike to drain liquidity ab

ETH has been rebounding for 53 days since 1748. Currently, the rebound is nearing its end, and a reversal point may occur this week or next week. After ending the rebound from 1748, ETH will continue to decline, and 1748 cannot serve as a bottom.
The overall approach remains consistent with the view in Sunday’s video. The short-term ETH movements are divided into two scenarios as shown in the chart:
Red: Accelerated upward movement in recent days with no significant correction. Under this path, there is a high probability of another peak above 2386 (based on BTC breaking through 76,000; even i

If BTC can push a strong rally this week on 3/30, there is a high probability that a new high above 76,000 will appear. Once it breaks through 76,000, the rebound can end at any time, entering a new downward trend. If the price does not fall below 65,000 in the next two days, the probability of the red route increases significantly.
If the subsequent days see weak upward momentum or a fall below 65,000 again, then 76,000 may become the highest point of this rebound. There could be an acceleration point for a sharp decline this week or next week, which will be a good opportunity for us to short

What’s next for gold? As shown in the chart—a pullback / a new low, then continued upward movement. If you’ve been following my pace, you won’t be worried about whether there are lower points later, because yesterday you already liquidated your positions and waited with me for the buying opportunity in mid to late April. When the time comes, jump in and make a big profit!
Whether there are lower points or not has nothing to do with whether you can profit later. In a confirmed upward trend, no matter where you enter, you will ultimately make a profit—it's just a matter of how much. The only thi

In an ideal scenario, the decline starting from 76,000 would be viewed as a pullback, and after the pullback ends, there would be another upward movement. The entire rebound that started from 60,000 would end in late March or early April, followed by a decline.
However, everyone should pay attention to one issue—BTC experiences numerous false moves before each major market trend begins. This includes but is not limited to deep pullbacks that make people think there are no higher highs and it will drop directly, rallies close to 76,000 that fail to break the high and drop immediately, rallies t

3/25 Bitcoin Market Analysis
As shown in the chart, if BTC's 67,360 on 3.23 serves as the phase low point, there is a high probability of a subsequent high point exceeding 76,000, with 79,000-80,000 as a possible target level. Key focus should be on the price reaction when BTC runs through the week of 4.1. According to the script, the highest point of the 4.1 weekly K-line will be the rebound endpoint for BTC's rally from 60,000, after which BTC will accelerate downward.
The difference between the red and blue scenarios lies only in whether there will be another low point below 67,360. The lon