ZhangShuofeng'sScriptDiary

Market Analysis 2026.04.17
Today, an overview of BTC's overall trend and current movement.
1. Bull-Bear Pattern Judgment
Figure 1 uses the low point of 15,400 and the high point of 126,000 as benchmarks. The boxed area in the figure can be seen as the dividing line between bull and bear markets—if three consecutive weekly candlesticks close above this area, it can be preliminarily judged that the bear market has ended.
Personal opinion: The probability that the February 2026 low of 60k becomes the bottom of the bear market is relatively low; the current trend starting from 60k points is more i

It's still Trump who knows how to play; I'm going to sleep. #美伊局势和谈与增兵博弈 $BTC ‌$ETH ‌$XAUT ‌

Currently, XAU/XAG investors are very excited, and the situation across the strait is almost to the point of openly stopping, just stubbornly clinging to face!
Since March 23, gold and silver have both been in a rebound cycle, but the strength and weakness are clearly differentiated: gold's rebound is stronger, while silver is relatively weaker.
Gold: Watch the resistance zone and wait for a pullback to go long
Key resistance: Focus on the black resistance zone shown in the chart. If it cannot be effectively broken through, the area around 4858 may become the end point of this rebound.
Trend f

I have to say, the liquidity in the crypto market is indeed very low right now—today’s trading volume is only 5.11K, and the average monthly trading volume is only 17.74K!
In a bear market, it’s often just a back-and-forth clearing. This situation can seriously deal a blow to the confidence of newcomers entering the market, while veteran “old weeds” are now basically watching the newcomers with a look that says it’s only natural!
Back to the chart: as mentioned yesterday, the “big cake” is currently rebounding and consolidating within a range of 90,000 to 59,000. The strength of this rebound c

In yesterday's live broadcast, it was mentioned that Ethereum is currently in a rebound phase, with the black upward trend line in the chart. As long as you are entering short-term long positions at the dotted line level, there is no problem!
The follow-up depends on whether a turning point signal appears this week or next week. Ideally, a breakout above 2450 to around 2470 would signal a turning point, ending this wave of rebound that started from 1748! #eth $ETH

Previously, the rally in crude oil from 76 was considered a rebound. It is the decline that started from the wave 5 point of 3.25 in the black line portion in the chart. After that, it did not break below 84.5 and instead reversed sharply—this also proves my understanding. The move up from 76 is only a rebound!
So now, it can be understood that this leg of decline starting from 106.5 is at the same level as the first wave on the left side of the chart. Next, we need to pay attention to the blue pressure zone of 91.4-92.9 in the chart. If the subsequent price action cannot effectively break thr

I previously said that after BTC, it would still go through a round of rebound. In the evening of the 7th, in the chart (, the gray box range ) was also pointed out within the group as a long entry. Around 21:00 on the 8th, the group advised taking 60% profit, and holding the rest. This morning, it also reached the fifth wave at the hourly level. A decisive call was made to exit all positions!
As for the next steps, we will look at the bullish and bearish situation this week and continue to provide trend intervention entry points. If by tomorrow morning, the daily chart can close with a real b

Yesterday took a 75% profit on a short-term short position, and the remaining 25% continues to be held. Ethereum also rebounded to 2194. After 22:00 tonight, I judged that the fifth wave is about to form, and promptly warned in the group that the entire short position should be closed!
For intraday short-term trading, you can enter a long position near 2165 at the red box location shown in the chart. The trend at the bottom-right corner clearly indicates that the 1-4 hour and daily levels still remain bullish. Today, focus mainly on short-term longs; later, I’ll provide the specific entry posi

CRCL Market Analysis 2026.04.09
In the tweet on March 24th, proposing 136.64 as the end point of the first rebound from 49.9 was very reasonable. Subsequently, CRCL plummeted by 38%. In the tweet on March 27th, it was pointed out that support at around 84 initiated a rebound, and now CRCL has gained over 20%. Has the second wave of rebound at the same level as 49.9-136.64 begun? The key is here:
As shown in the chart, 104.27, as the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level of the 136.64-84 decline, exerts a strong resistance. If CRCL can effectively break through this zone, we can imagine that the co

NVDA NVIDIA is following the script I released on March 25th. Let's look forward to it entering the profit zone. #nvda $NVDAX

From now on, just share short-term analysis so everyone can understand better!
This morning around 3 a.m., I mentioned in the group that entering short positions at 2210-2220 was possible. This is based on what I said earlier—that the volume during this rebound is insufficient, and it's just a reaction to news. I still believe that the overall downtrend has not ended yet! It’s not the time to bottom out.
For short-term trading, after entering at 2210-2220, I also suggested reducing positions by 75% tonight at 9 p.m. The remaining core position should be held to avoid missing out if the market

XAU Gold Market Analysis 2026.04.09
Gold accelerated its rally yesterday after the US-Iran conflict temporarily eased, but no sustained momentum followed, which confirms the view that "the rise here is essentially just a rebound." Specific historical events and news only accelerate the market process but do not change its overall trend.
If the rebound from 4100 corresponds to the blue downward segment on the chart, then it has already met the basic requirements, meaning the rebound is about to end or has already ended. If the price then falls below 4553, it confirms that gold will follow the b

Market Analysis 2026.04.08
BTC this morning experienced an upward surge influenced by news. Regarding the US-Iran issue, I believe it’s still a bit early to say it’s fully resolved. My impression is that it’s more about stalling than a true resolution. We won’t speculate too much on the specific reasons.
The rally from BTC’s 60k mark is a rebound. Based on the rebound levels, I’ve outlined two potential paths: red and blue.
Red Path: The rebound from BTC’s 60k targets the entire decline from 126,000 to 60k. Under this path, a break above 76,000 to set a new high is allowed. However, generally

XAU Gold Market Analysis 2026.04.08
Gold did not break below 4600 and experienced a sharp surge this morning due to news stimuli.
Therefore, today's tweet makes a slight adjustment to the small-level analysis of gold, mainly based on the rebound level from 4100.
Red Line: The movement of gold starting from 4100 is a rebound of the entire decline from 5600 to 4100. If it can break through the 4910-4930 level and stay above it in the near term, the likelihood of this route increases. The subsequent rebound target for gold will be near the historical high, with 5300-5450 as a possible endpoint.

BTC Trend and Stage Market Analysis 2026.04.07
Killa is a well-known technical analyst in the English-speaking crypto community and an experienced trader. Recently, he ended his short-term bearish positions and shifted to a long-term low-leverage deployment strategy.
I believe that $60k may not be the final bottom of this cycle, but I understand his analytical logic. Today, I will analyze the trend and stage market to help everyone distinguish between "long-term allocation" and "short-term trading."
Looking at the BTC weekly chart (Figure 1), Killa believes that the pullback since $126,000 has

CRCL Market Analysis 2025.04.07
After dropping to the level indicated in the March 27 tweet, CRCL began to rebound as expected. Currently, the previous view remains unchanged — the decline from 136.6 is a correction, and after the correction ends, CRCL will continue to rise.
The key now is whether it can quickly break through the 96.5 level. If it can break through and stabilize above the red resistance zone shown in the chart, the correction for CRCL may be over. Under this scenario, CRCL has been running from 83 in a move similar in level to the rise from 49.6 to 136.6.
If it cannot break th

Gold Price Analysis 2026.04.07
Since I was able to predict the subsequent trend of gold on March 1st and it was validated by the end of March, I believe the trend forecast I provided in Chart 3 today will also come true.
Last night, I took a short position because the price was facing resistance during the rally and the risk-reward ratio was favorable, so I also notified 🐰 friends to join the trade. If the price drops below 4600 in the next two days, it will increase the probability of following the blue route in Chart 3; a break below 4553 would confirm it completely.
If the price breaks abo

XAG Silver Market Analysis 2026.04.06
Today, I will briefly discuss the future market trend based on silver ETF holdings data and fundamentals.
The structural shortage in the physical silver market has not changed despite recent price fluctuations. From 2021 to now, the cumulative shortage has equaled the total global mine production for an entire year. Additionally, the development cycle for new mining projects remains very long, which means that during 2027-2030, the underlying logic of tight supply is unlikely to be broken. Short-term paper price corrections will not alter the long-term sup