Cryptocurrency Breakfast | April 9

Macro Geopolitics
1. The US-Iran ceasefire agreement is essentially defunct; Iran is collecting tolls for the Strait of Hormuz using cryptocurrency (Bitcoin), attempting to maintain control over the waterway during the two-week ceasefire period. The Iranian speaker directly stated that three items of the "Ten-Point Plan" have been violated; ceasefire and negotiations are now meaningless. Trump proposed joint operation of the strait with Iran and banned uranium enrichment.
2. The Federal Reserve March meeting minutes released hawkish signals, with more officials mentioning the possibility of interest rate hikes. The "Fed mouthpiece" said that the ceasefire makes decision-making more complicated.
3. Risk aversion sentiment fluctuates: spot gold once surged above $4,850, hitting a nearly three-week high before retracing gains, closing up 0.29%; spot silver rose 1.5%. US stocks rebounded across the board, Dow up 2.85%, Nasdaq up 2.8%, Tesla fell 1% against the trend.
Crypto Dynamics
4. Institutional Entry: Morgan Stanley launched its first bank-related Bitcoin spot ETF (MSBT), with a low fee rate of 0.14%, approximately $34 million net inflow on the first day, buying about 430 BTC.
5. ETH Fundamentals: The total supply of on-chain stablecoins on Ethereum surpassed $180 billion, hitting a record high.
6. Industry Voices: Michael Saylor stated at the Mizuho event that Bitcoin may have bottomed out; the risks of quantum computing are exaggerated; bank credit plus digital credit will drive the next bull market.
7. Regulation and Compliance: Yuga Labs reached a settlement with RR/BAYC counterfeit projects to avoid court proceedings; CZ released his autobiography "Freedom of Money."
AI Track
8. Claude launched Managed Agents, supporting rapid construction and deployment of AI agents; Gemini introduced notebook functionality; Meta released a new model, Muse Spark.

【Bitcoin Market Analysis】
Last night’s market experienced intense volatility: news of a comprehensive ceasefire + rumors of Iran charging tolls in Bitcoin drove BTC sharply up to $72,000; then Israel disrupted the ceasefire, and the market quickly retreated.
Current key level: hovering around $70,000; whether it can hold firmly on the 4-hour timeframe is the short-term directional core.
Two scenarios:
Hold above $70,000 + Trump does not interfere → continuation of the rebound
Lose support or sudden geopolitical risk → return to volatility, waiting for the situation to become fully clear
Core contradiction: the randomness of short-term geopolitical game vs. the continuous inflow of institutional funds (Morgan ETF). The former dominates volatility, the latter determines the trend.
$BTC $ETH
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