John Tener of Aptus Capital Advisors noted that the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting will take place against the backdrop of Middle East conflicts and rising oil prices. The market is focused on the dot plot and Powell's language. Rate cut expectations have been canceled, but could quickly resume if the conflict ends.

Gate News reported that on March 13, Bank of America stated that the Federal Reserve will have to address the supply shock from soaring oil prices. In the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) released ahead of the March Federal Reserve meeting, overall and core inflation forecasts are likely to be revised upward. The Bank of America report points out that if long-term growth expectations are also revised upward, the median dot plot for long-term interest rates could move slightly higher. In this case, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell may acknowledge stagflation risks while emphasizing a wait-and-see approach.

On March 11,, French police arrested 12 suspects involved in planning last year's cryptocurrency kidnapping case, rescuing a Swiss man who had been held for four days. The kidnappers demanded ransom paid in cryptocurrency, and the victim was subjected to severe abuse. Authorities have identified approximately 20 related individuals and have filed multiple charges against several suspects.

PANews February 8 News, Arthur Hayes tweeted that Bitcoin derivatives do not trigger price volatility; they only amplify two-way fluctuations. The crypto market crash is not due to any secret conspiracy. Fortunately, there was no government bailout, allowing for the quick clearing of over-leveraged investors and the restoration of the upward trend.

PANews December 18 News, Singapore-based crypto investment firm QCP Capital analyzes that the Federal Reserve has sent cautious signals, with interest rate paths tending to flatten. Market confidence and caution are intertwined at year-end. The FOMC's "hawkish rate cuts" aim to stabilize employment and control inflation, with policies depending on data. The dot plot shows the median interest rate at the next meeting will be between 3.25% and 3.5%. The 2026 interest rate path is even flatter, and the market expects approximately 2.3 rate cuts. Non-farm payroll data remains unchanged, with CPI becoming a short-term key indicator. The Fed's bond purchases have eased liquidity tensions. Additionally, the stock market and artificial intelligence remain key factors influencing macro trends. If income cannot match investments, risks are not limited to a correction in the AI sector but could also trigger a broader reset of stock market valuations. Given the central role of AI themes in this year's market performance, it is undoubtedly a key variable for 2026. Furthermore, cryptocurrencies are still affected by macroeconomic

ChainCatcher message, according to Jinshi report, Federal Reserve's Bostic stated that in the 2026 forecast (dot plot), no rate cuts are included, and he believes the economy will perform better with an approximate 2.5% GDP growth rate, so policy should remain restrictive.

ChainCatcher reports that, according to Jinshi, Huatai Securities pointed out that on December 11th, Beijing time (Thursday) early morning, the Federal Reserve announced its December meeting decision, as scheduled cutting interest rates by 25 basis points and initiating the Reserve Management Purchases (RMPs). The dot plot maintained the guidance of one rate cut in 2026-27. Powell's statement was dovish. Considering that the employment market will gradually improve, the Federal Reserve is expected to pause interest rate cuts in the future.

ChainCatcher reports that, according to Jinsi, analyst Anna Wong stated that the Federal Reserve's policy statement and updated projections are generally dovish, despite some hawkish signals. The committee significantly raised the growth trajectory, lowered the inflation outlook, and kept the "dot plot" unchanged. She pointed out that although the "dot plot" indicates only one rate cut in 2026, with market expectations of two, she believes the Fed will ultimately cut rates by 100 basis points next year due to expected weak wage growth and no clear signs of inflation reigniting.

The median of the Federal Reserve dot plot shows an expectation of one rate cut in 2026, one rate cut in 2027, and a hold in 2028. There are clear disagreements regarding rate hikes, holds, and cuts in 2026.

Analysts at BNY Mellon pointed out that the market has already priced in expectations for a Fed rate cut this month, which is anticipated to be a hawkish cut. Future monetary easing will depend on economic data from 2026. At the same time, the change in Fed chairmanship and the FOMC dot plot could lead to policy divergence, reflecting two-way economic risks.