Gate News message, April 25 — Macro trends and geopolitical tensions dominated market movements this week. U.S.-Iran tensions continue to pressure oil prices and global risk assets, with the Strait of Hormuz blockade unresolved and negotiations shifting toward “complete ceasefire.” Risk-off sentiment has driven volatility in the U.S. dollar and crude oil prices.
Trump’s influence over market direction has intensified markedly. Data shows that during his second term, nearly all major daily swings in U.S. equities have been policy-driven, with traders positioning around his shifting policy signals. The market’s pricing logic has become increasingly “Trump-centric.”
The crude oil market has drawn particular regulatory scrutiny. Multiple instances of precise “front-running” trades occurred: within 15 minutes before ceasefire announcements or policy shifts, hundreds of millions of dollars in short positions appeared and successfully bet on sharp declines. Over one month, the cumulative scale of such trades reached approximately $2.6 billion, prompting U.S. regulators to investigate potential insider trading. Meanwhile, the U.S. Justice Department unexpectedly withdrew its investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Powell, clearing the way for Waller’s appointment as the next Fed chair. Waller emphasized during his testimony that he will not become a “rate-cut tool” but supports institutional reforms.
Assets showed divergent performance: crude oil strengthened on supply concerns, gold and silver retreated under pressure, U.S. equities hit new highs amid volatility with widening structural divergence, and the Japanese yen depreciated toward intervention levels. Other notable developments included Tesla raising capital expenditures to $25 billion to bet on AI and robotics, DeepSeek releasing its V4 model with reports that Tencent and Alibaba plan to invest at a valuation exceeding $20 billion, and OpenAI launching GPT-5.5 to accelerate commercialization.
Overall, the combination of geopolitical conflict and policy uncertainty has pushed markets into a new normal of elevated volatility, with trading logic shifting from “macro data-driven” to “event and power-driven.”
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