Gate News reports that on March 22, Ethereum treasury company BitMine Chairman Tom Lee said in an interview with CNBC that the year-end target for the S&P 500 index (the benchmark index of the U.S. stock market) remains at 7,700 points. He pointed out that 7,700 is already a conservative estimate, as it only assumes moderate P/E ratio expansion this year. Despite the short-term massive shocks and uncertainties caused by the war, including its impact on monetary policy, the war may be beneficial to the U.S. economy and stock market in the long run. By the end of the year, the market will gradually shift focus from the crisis itself to the opportunities within it. Looking back at the last eight major war events, the market usually begins to bottom out early in the conflict.
Regarding whether the current market is overly optimistic, Tom Lee said that the market has actually experienced a bear market. Last year, energy stocks were already in a three-year bear market, financial stocks were also declining, and MAG-7 (the seven major U.S. tech giants) were also in a downtrend. These sectors together account for about 70% of the S&P 500. Even before the war started, gold had already experienced a parabolic rise, indicating that the market had already begun pricing in geopolitical uncertainties to some extent, and investors had completed de-risking.
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