Gate News message, April 17 — The Philippine Institute of Development Studies (PIDS) released a policy note finding that surging global oil prices could push 1.34 million Filipinos below the poverty line. Under the latest energy shock scenario, which assumes oil prices at $105 per barrel with a 35% pass-through to domestic prices, the country’s poverty rate could rise to 14.4% in 2026 from 13.2% in 2025. Under more severe scenarios, poverty could jump to 15.3% to 16.3%, affecting approximately 3.1 million Filipinos.
The burden of rising costs is not shared equally across income groups. According to PIDS senior research fellow Jose Ramon Albert, while higher-income households may lose more in absolute terms, poorer families face greater hardship since they spend a larger portion of their income on essentials like rice, fish, meat, and vegetables, and often have little to no savings. Rural areas are particularly vulnerable, as families there depend on farming and other fuel-intensive activities for livelihood and have fewer income-earning opportunities. Regions already grappling with higher poverty rates—including the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, Bicol Region, and parts of Mindanao—are expected to be hit hardest.
The PIDS policy note recommended directing support toward poorer and near-poor households rather than implementing blanket fuel subsidies, which tend to benefit higher-income households. In response to the oil crisis triggered by Middle East conflict, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. suspended the excise tax on liquefied petroleum gas and kerosene for three months, targeting the bottom 30% of households.
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