Global Oil Inventories Could Hit 8-Year Lows by June 2026

Visible Oil Stocks Face Record Decline

Global visible oil stores are set to drop to record lows even if traffic through the Strait of Hormuz restarts by the end of April, according to analysts quoted in reporting from April 24, 2026. Visible stocks—the oil in audited tanks and tracked tankers—could fall to 7.6 billion barrels by June, according to US investment bank Goldman Sachs, even if diplomatic breakthroughs or an end to the Iran war allow ships to pass through the waterway. Researchers described even this scenario as “optimistic.”

Current Inventory Levels and Projections

Previous lows in late 2024 to early 2025 stood at around 7.65 billion barrels. Inventories could fall by another 100 million barrels in May and again in June if flows through the Strait of Hormuz do not restart.

Analysts at investment bank Citi also forecast a fall in petroleum stock volumes. “We expect to see crude and product inventories globally reach their lowest levels in eight years by the end of June, even if the conflict ended this week,” Citi said in a research note. The bank estimates that around 900 million barrels of stockpiles will have been lost even if the conflict ended imminently.

Countries have already drawn down between 470 million and 500 million barrels from their supplies, according to Goldman Sachs and Citi. This includes a 400 million barrel release in March 2026 by International Energy Agency (IEA) member countries.

Strait of Hormuz Disruption

Before the conflict, which has been described as the largest shock to the market in history by IEA chief Fatih Birol, around a fifth of global oil and gas passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil flows through the strait remain at a “near standstill” of just 2 million barrels per day, or approximately 10 percent of its normal capacity.

A fall in reserves would deplete an important cushion that is helping to support oil prices.

Oil Price Movements

Brent crude prices were $105.42 a barrel at 06:06 GMT on Friday, April 24, 2026, down from peaks of nearly $120 in March but above the approximately $70 they traded at before the conflict broke out at the end of February.

Prices rose again this week when peace talks between the US and Iran stalled after the two countries failed to participate in a second round of discussions. The US Navy has maintained a blockade on Iranian vessels, while Iran has reportedly seized tankers in retaliation.

Demand Destruction Masking Supply Shock

Prices are also being kept lower by a drop in demand, experts have said. The world was using almost 105 million barrels of oil a day before the conflict, according to the IEA.

The IEA forecasts that oil demand worldwide will decline by 80,000 barrels a day this year—in what would be the first annual drop since the Covid-19 pandemic—and will fall by 1.5 million barrels a day in the second quarter. This represents a reversal from previous expectations that demand would grow.

Researchers at S&P Global forecast that demand will drop by a far steeper 700,000 barrels a day in 2026, according to reporting from Reuters.

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said “demand destruction and stock drawdowns” are masking the shock. “The market is pricing temporary disruption and weak demand, likely underestimating how tight things become once demand stabilises.”

Government Conservation Measures

Countries are mandating work from home, advising the public to use less energy on air conditioning and reducing highway speed limits to preserve fossil fuel use, according to a tracker from the IEA.