Gate News reports that Bitcoin is fluctuating around $70,700, with a total increase of about 10% this month, but the market faces potential traps. On-chain data shows that retail investors and whales are simultaneously transferring Bitcoin to exchanges, with a surge in capital inflows, typically indicating potential selling pressure. Retail investors holding 0.1 to 1 BTC have increased their Bitcoin deposits into exchanges from 394 BTC to 682 BTC over three days, while whales holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC transferred in 2,788 BTC on March 24 alone. Whales holding over 10,000 BTC also transferred in 3,000 BTC.
Meanwhile, the Bitcoin derivatives market remains bullish, with total funding rates jumping from negative to positive, indicating that long positions are dominant. Open interest remains relatively stable, but the divergence between spot and derivatives increases market risk. If spot selling pressure dominates, leveraged long positions could trigger forced liquidations, leading to a chain reaction of declines.
On the technical side, Bitcoin is testing the 100-period exponential moving average (EMA), with a key level near $70,700. If the price breaks above $70,900, it could further rise to $72,800 and challenge the upper channel boundary at $76,000. Conversely, if it fails to hold the EMA, support levels are at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $69,300 and the 0.618 retracement at $67,700. If the daily close drops below $67,700, the price could further decline to $65,400 or even $62,600.
Analysts point out that the core risk in the current Bitcoin market lies in the confrontation between spot selling pressure and derivatives long positions. Traders should closely monitor exchange capital inflows and key technical support levels to determine whether this rally will continue or fall into a liquidity trap.
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