Gate News Report, March 23 — Bitcoin bulls should be cautious of recent momentum signals. Since Bitcoin hit a record high last October, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has accurately signaled selling risks multiple times, and now it has triggered a red alert again.
The MACD calculates momentum changes using the 12-day and 26-day exponential moving averages, complemented by the 9-day signal line and histogram to show strength. When the histogram turns negative, it indicates market momentum is leaning bearish, and recent trends show Bitcoin’s momentum is weakening again.
Historical data shows that whenever the MACD falls below zero, Bitcoin’s price tends to undergo significant corrections. On November 3 last year, after the MACD histogram dropped below zero, Bitcoin rapidly declined from about $106,000 to $80,000 by November 21; on January 20 this year, when the MACD turned bearish again, Bitcoin fell from $90,000 to nearly $60,000 by February 6, with limited rebound, only recovering to around $75,000.
Overall, the repeated accuracy of MACD signals suggests that sellers still dominate the market rhythm, and short-term rebounds for bulls are often unsustainable. With geopolitical tensions rising, especially under the influence of conflicts involving Iran, Bitcoin prices may face further volatility. Traders should monitor technical indicator changes, manage risks prudently, and stay alert to potential sell-offs that could trigger price corrections.
In the short term, investors can assess whether Bitcoin continues to oscillate or experiences a deep correction by monitoring MACD momentum changes and key support levels. Caution is advised in trading operations.
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