Bitcoin is hovering around the $700,000 level; if oil prices fall below $100 or push toward $80,000

Gate News update: In April 2026, Bitcoin has maintained high levels of volatility. The price rebounded from about $67,000 at the start of this week to around $70,900. The key driver is that after the United States and Iran reached a short-term ceasefire deal, crude oil prices fell sharply by about 15%, dropping below the $100 per barrel threshold, and market risk appetite rose at the same time.

However, after Bitcoin repeatedly climbed above $70,000, it quickly fell back, indicating that sell pressure above remains evident. Market analysts believe that the next phase of the trend will no longer be driven entirely by on-chain data or capital flows, but will depend heavily on oil price trends and changes in macro expectations. The analysis notes that if crude oil prices continue to weaken, it will ease inflation pressure and may also prompt the market to price in 2026 rate cuts earlier, which would support non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin.

The derivatives market also releases key signals. Adam Saville Brown said that currently about $6 billion in short positions are concentrated in the $72,200 to $73,500 range. Once the price breaks above $72,500, it could trigger large-scale short liquidations, creating a chain reaction that could rapidly push Bitcoin up to around $80,000.

But the risks remain significant. Recently, there has been renewed back-and-forth in the Middle East situation, with signs that the ceasefire agreement could break down, and the risk of disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has increased. If oil prices rise back above $100, or even surge to $120, it would push up inflation expectations again, reduce room for rate cuts, and weigh on Bitcoin.

The market is currently in a clear “two-sided tug-of-war” phase: falling oil prices could open up upside space for Bitcoin, while escalation in geopolitical conflict could quickly reverse risk sentiment. In the next roughly two-week window, volatility in the energy market may become the key variable determining whether Bitcoin breaks to new highs.