January 28 News, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a technical rebound after reaching a phased low on January 25. As of press time, the price has risen approximately 3.74%, trading near $89,300. Previously, U.S. President Trump stated after a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte that no new tariffs would be imposed in the short term. This statement has somewhat alleviated macro-level uncertainty and provided a breathing space for risk assets.
However, the market structure has not shown substantial improvement. Data indicates that the funds held by whale addresses continue to rise, while small and medium-sized holders are gradually exiting the market, with clear signs of capital divergence. Although geopolitical tensions have eased somewhat, Bitcoin’s ability to stay above $90,000 still heavily depends on sustained and strong spot capital inflows. The upcoming Federal Reserve FOMC meeting may further amplify price volatility.
Several on-chain analysts remain cautious about the current market. CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno pointed out that multiple classic models once considered as “cycle top guides,” including S2F, power-law models, M2 liquidity indicators, and business cycle indicators, are increasingly failing. He believes that the market keeps changing narratives to reinforce bullish beliefs but ignores the underlying trends reflected by the data—Bitcoin is still in a bear market environment.
Analyst Axel Adler Jr also warned that the chill in the crypto market is deepening. Compared to the 2017 and 2021 cycles, Bitcoin’s highest position on the rainbow chart in this cycle has only remained in the “accumulation” zone, far from reaching historically extreme overvaluation areas. This suggests that if the bear market thesis is correct, the current cycle’s price structure may have already deviated significantly from past patterns.
Meanwhile, the Pi cycle indicator, which has accurately captured tops multiple times, has yet to signal a sell, further intensifying market divergence. Unless Bitcoin truly surges past $150,000 in 2026, the dislocation among various indicators may indicate that a more complex and prolonged correction phase is still underway.
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