On August 6, the price of Pi coin fell to $0.32, setting a historical low, nearly a 90% big dump from the historical high of $2.98 in February.
Market sentiment has dropped to freezing point, and investors are questioning whether this project with a large user base has reached its end.
However, a dramatic turn of events occurred three days later. With a mysterious "Whale" making large purchases and the token unlocking pace slowing down, the price of Pi coin rebounded 20% from the abyss, returning to the $0.40 mark on August 9. As of August 12, according to the latest market data from Gate, the price of Pi coin remained in the range of $0.35 to $0.42, and the market entered a critical stage of bullish and bearish contention.
Sharp fall, dual pressure from token unlocking and migration challenges
Pi coin experienced a rollercoaster ride in 2025. The frenzy when it reached an all-time high of $2.98 at the beginning of the year stands in stark contrast to the low of $0.32 in August. A single-day big dump of 20% was not an isolated incident, but rather a culmination of multiple hidden risks accumulating over time.
The influx of token supply is impacting the market. From July to early August, an average of 7 to 8 million PI were unlocked and entered circulation daily. In just August, 160 million PI were unlocked, equivalent to a 2% increase in circulation. This continuous growth in supply far exceeds the actual market demand.
The slow progress of the mainnet migration has become another obstacle. Although official data shows that as of early August, 9 million users have migrated their tokens and 19 million have completed KYC verification, a large number of early users are still unable to access mainnet assets due to technical issues. The bottleneck in the migration process has significantly weakened investor confidence.
The lack of support from exchanges further compresses liquidity space. Pi coin has yet to land on mainstream trading platforms like Binance, resulting in limited real trading channels and making the price more susceptible to being suppressed by a small number of sell orders. When panic spreads within the community, these structural flaws become catalysts for price collapse.
A desperate rebound, Whale entering the market and technical upgrades turning the trend around.
From its historical low of August 6 to a rebound to $0.45 on August 10, the stunning comeback of Pi coin is backed by a subtle shift in fundamentals and market sentiment.
The entry of a mysterious "Whale" has changed the supply and demand pattern. On-chain data shows that a single address has quietly accumulated over 350 million PI, accounting for 4.5% of the circulating supply. This large-scale accumulation has directly reduced market selling pressure, providing support for the price.
The pace of token unlocking has significantly slowed down. According to PiScan data, the average daily unlocking amount is expected to drop to 5.6 million coins in the next month, approximately 30% lower than in July. Fewer tokens entering the market means there is more time for the market to digest the existing supply.
Technical indicators are issuing bullish signals. At the beginning of August, the 4-hour chart RSI of Pi coin rose from the oversold zone of 38 to 67, and the MACD formed a golden cross, with the Chaikin Money Flow indicator. Flow It has also turned from negative to positive. The technical recovery has attracted the attention of short-term traders.
Ecological construction is also advancing in parallel. The Pi Network has integrated Stellar Protocol 23 technical standards, and access to compliant fiat channels such as Banxa and TransFi, allow users to purchase PI directly using credit cards and Apple Pay. Although these developments have not directly pushed up prices, they have laid the foundation for long-term value.
The long and short game: Three future scenarios under market divergence
As the price of Pi coin stabilizes around $0.40, market analysts show significant divergence in their outlook. Optimists see a chance for a rebound, while cautious analysts warn that risks remain.
Bullish perspectives believe that a technical pattern has shown signs of hope. Pi coin has formed a "descending wedge" breakout pattern on the daily chart, and historical experience suggests this may trigger a trend reversal. If buying pressure continues to strengthen, the price is expected to challenge the 0.47 dollar Fibonacci resistance level in the short term, and may even return to the 0.60 to 0.70 dollar range in the medium term.
Analyst Crypto Vision (@cin365x) pointed out: "After breaking the resistance level of $0.42, Pi’s next target is in the range of $0.60 to $0.70, and in the medium term, it may even reach $1.20 to $1.30."
The bearish forces are worried that this is just a "dead cat bounce." Pi coin has seen daily rebounds of over 10% multiple times during its six-month decline, but ultimately these have all become points of continuation for further downward movement. A real reversal requires stronger support.
Neutral analysts propose three scenario predictions:
- Bull market scenario: Whales continue to accumulate, Stellar Protocol 23 deployed in a timely manner, listing on Binance, and the price may test $0.60.
- Neutral scenario: KYC process is progressing steadily, ecosystem is gradually expanding, and the price is oscillating between 0.38 and 0.47 dollars.
- Bear market scenario: Exchange listing delays, accelerated unlocks, or whales stopping purchases may cause the price to fall back to 0.33 USD.
Investor guide to finding certainty in volatile markets
In the face of the volatile Pi coin market, investors need to penetrate the price noise and grasp the core variables. The following factors are worth tracking closely:
The token unlocking calendar is a key barometer for short-term prices. Pay attention to daily unlocking forecasts from data platforms like PiScan; when the daily unlocking volume exceeds 8 million coins, the market is usually under pressure; if it stays below 5 million coins for several consecutive days, a rebound window may arise.
The movements of on-chain Whales often indicate changes in trends. The behavior of an address holding hundreds of millions of PI is enough to influence market direction. By monitoring large transfers through blockchain explorers, especially the inflow and outflow of funds in exchanges, one can detect the intentions of the major players in advance.
The dynamics of mainstream exchanges remain a potential catalyst for price breakthroughs. Although the Pi team has repeatedly clarified that "the listing time is determined by the exchange," any minor movements on platforms like Binance can trigger market fluctuations. It is recommended to pay attention to official announcements from exchanges to avoid being misled by community rumors.
The growth of ecological applications constitutes a long-term value foundation. Currently, Pi App Studio has attracted over 20,000 dApps to settle in, including payment tools, social applications, and other scenarios. The growth of real usage demand is the ultimate factor supporting the price.
For ordinary investors, a dollar-cost averaging strategy can reduce timing risk. By investing funds in batches, it avoids panic selling at extreme lows like the one on August 6. At the same time, it is important to allocate assets reasonably and control the proportion of Pi coin in the investment portfolio.
Future Outlook
As of August 12, the price of Pi coin hovers around $0.40, with the market in a wait-and-see mode. Technical analysts point out that $0.32 has become a key support level, and if it breaks down, it may open up new downward space; the resistance above is in the range of $0.50 to $0.52, which is a psychological level from earlier this year.
In the coming weeks, approximately 560 million Pi tokens will be unlocked into the market as planned. However, investors are looking towards a more distant technological roadmap—the Pi Network team is deploying the Stellar Protocol 23 upgrade and advancing integration with over 170 payment channels. Price fluctuations will eventually settle, and the true value of a blockchain ecosystem with 70 million users is just beginning to emerge.
