Recently, the cryptocurrency market has surged strongly, with Bitcoin (BTC) reaching a historic high, while Ethena (ENA) has become the market focus thanks to its favorable developments.
The ENA/BTC trading pair trend has become the core focus of investors. Its reversal timing depends not only on ENA’s independent market performance but also on the subtle balance with Bitcoin’s dominant position.
ENA Strong Rise: Short-term Surge and Key Resistance
- News-driven explosive market: On July 13, South Korea’s largest exchange Upbit announced the launch of ENA trading pairs (KRW/BTC/USDT), directly driving ENA’s daily surge of 25%, with prices approaching $0.37, and trading volume skyrocketing by over 300%. Market enthusiasm soared simultaneously, with net inflows into spot reaching $3.37 million, hitting a two-month high, and open interest in futures also increasing to the highest level since June 16.
- Technical breakthrough of key formation: The ENA price successfully broke through the upper resistance line of the "descending triangle" formed since mid-May. This formation was originally viewed as a bearish continuation, but after a volume breakout, it turned into a strong bullish signal. If it can maintain above the $0.30 support level, the next target will point to the range top of $0.46.
Bitcoin Independent Market: ETF and Institutional Funds Push Ceiling
Bitcoin is experiencing an unprecedented institution-driven bull market. On July 15, BTC broke through $123,000, with nearly $5 billion in spot ETF inflows over the past month, pushing BTC’s total market cap above $2.31 trillion.
Technical analysts point out that the BTC weekly chart has completed the "Juda Swing" washout structure and filled the fair value gap (FVG), with the medium-term target pointing to the range of $121,722 - $140,344.
Gate Institute emphasizes that the key support for BTC is at $108,500. If maintained, there is hope for a challenge of $130,000 in the third quarter.
ENA/BTC Trend Logic
- Core factors affecting the ratio: When ENA’s increase significantly exceeds that of BTC, the ENA/BTC trading pair shows an upward trend; conversely, if BTC accelerates its rise, the relative value of ENA is diluted. Currently, both are in a strong phase: ENA has a weekly increase of 36%, BTC has a monthly increase of 6.5%, but BTC’s volume advantage gives its fluctuations a greater weight in affecting the trading pair.
- Key resistance and support: ENA needs to effectively break through 0.46 USD and maintain volume to offset the pressure of BTC’s rise on the trading pair. If BTC briefly reaches 120,000 - 122,800 USD and then enters consolidation, it will create a window for ENA/BTC to rebound.
Potential Risks
- Unlocking selling pressure cannot be ignored: Ethena’s periodic token unlocks continue to bring supply pressure. At the beginning of July, the unlocking of 40 million ENA (approximately 10 million USD) led to a 4% price drop. If future unlocks coincide with market fluctuations, it may weaken ENA’s relative advantage.
- Greed Index warning of a pullback: Bitcoin’s "Fear and Greed Index" reached 67 (Greed zone), indicating that there is FOMO sentiment in the market. If ETF inflows slow down or U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory policies change (Congress review week on July 14), it may trigger a synchronized pullback of dual currencies, exacerbating the volatility of trading pairs.
Trend Prediction and Reversal Signals
Short term (1-2 weeks): Whether ENA/BTC can continue its upward trend depends on the outcome of the resistance breakthrough at $0.46 and BTC’s performance at $120,000. If ENA leverages the positive news of being listed on Upbit to break through, and BTC enters a consolidation phase, the trading pair will see a rapid increase.
Mid-term reversal confirmation signal:
- ENA closed the weekly chart firmly at 0.46 USD, forming a new high structure;
- BTC daily line breaks below the support of 112,000 USD, entering deep adjustment;
- The market funds are rotating into altcoins, and the ENA spot and futures open interest has reached a new high.
Currently, the stability of ENA at the support level of 0.30 USD and the impact of Bitcoin on the 120,000 USD threshold will be the key observation points for the trend reversal of the ENA/BTC trading pair.
If ENA successfully breaks through 0.46 USD and Bitcoin enters a consolidation phase, this trading pair will experience a strong reversal — the rotation of funds in the crypto market always quietly occurs between strong and weak transitions.
