Despite ongoing volatility in the crypto market, the latest research report from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant offers investors a clear macro perspective. The firm notes that Bitcoin has not yet entered a "deep bear" phase, and its so-called "ultimate" bottom is estimated to be around $55,000. This conclusion is based on a comprehensive analysis of multiple data points, including realized price, market profitability, and long-term holder behavior.
Realized Price Anchors the Bottom Range, Historical Patterns Reveal Bottoming Cycles
In its report, CryptoQuant emphasizes that Bitcoin’s realized price has historically served as the most critical support level during bear market cycles, often marking the final market bottom. Data shows that Bitcoin’s current trading price is still more than 25% above this key level.
Looking back at previous cycles helps clarify where we stand today. In past deep bear markets, prices have fallen significantly below the realized price: for example, after the FTX collapse, the price dropped 24% below realized price; during the prolonged 2018 bear market, the gap reached as much as 30%. More importantly, CryptoQuant points out that after hitting these extreme levels, the market typically needs four to six months to build a solid bottom, rather than reversing course after a single sharp drop.
Massive Losses Don’t Signal a Bottom Yet, Loss Scale Still Falls Short
Earlier this month, the market downturn did trigger significant short-term panic. Data shows that on February 5, when the Bitcoin price fell 14% to $62,000, holders realized $5.4 billion in losses in a single day. This marked a new high since March 2023, even surpassing the $4.3 billion recorded after the FTX collapse.
However, CryptoQuant argues that despite the scale of single-day losses, this does not signal a structural market bottom. A true bottom requires broader "capitulation." Looking at monthly cumulative realized losses denominated in Bitcoin, the current level is about 300,000 BTC—still far below the 1.1 million BTC seen during the bear market at the end of 2022. This suggests that the market has yet to experience a full-blown panic sell-off, and bottom formation will take more time.
Key Valuation Metrics Have Not Reached Extreme Undervaluation
Several core on-chain indicators also confirm that the market remains in a "bottoming" phase rather than a "deep bear":
- MVRV Ratio: As a classic metric comparing market value to realized value, CryptoQuant notes that the current MVRV ratio has not yet entered the extreme undervaluation range that historically marks bear market bottoms. While the ratio has recently dropped to around 1.1—approaching the so-called "undervaluation threshold"—it is only when the value falls below 1 that the market is considered truly undervalued.
- NUPL Indicator (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss): This metric also has not reached the roughly 20% unrealized loss level seen at previous cycle lows.
Long-Term Holder Behavior and Market Supply Status
Long-term holders (LTH) play a key role in gauging market sentiment. The report notes that currently, long-term holders are selling only at near break-even prices. In past bear market bottoms, they typically endured losses of 30% to 40% before true panic selling emerged.
Additionally, from the perspective of overall market profitability, about 55% of Bitcoin supply remains in profit. Historically, true market lows have coincided with this figure dropping to the 45% to 50% range.
Cycle Indicators Still Signal "Bear Market," Far From "Extreme"
Taking all these factors into account, CryptoQuant’s bull-bear cycle indicator remains in the "bear market phase," rather than signaling an imminent bottom with an "extreme bear market phase." The firm further explains that the "extreme bear market phase" has historically lasted several months, meaning that bottom formation is a long and complex process—not a single event.
Conclusion
As of February 14, 2026, according to the latest data from Gate, Bitcoin has rebounded on improving macro sentiment, currently trading at $69,600—a 24-hour gain of 3.54%, with a session high of $69,900. Ethereum (ETH) is quoted at $2,050.34, up 5.37% in the past 24 hours.
Although prices have recovered somewhat, CryptoQuant’s on-chain analysis offers investors a rational mid- to long-term perspective. The realized price area around $55,000 will be a key technical level to watch in the coming months to determine whether the market has truly bottomed. A genuine market reversal may require further clarity in the macro environment and the emergence of "extreme panic" signals in on-chain data.
