Alpaca Finance used to be a decentralized leveraged yield farming protocol based on BNB blockchain, users can amplify their earnings with up to 8x leverage, which once became a popular project in the DeFi space. However, on May 26, 2025, the team announced a comprehensive phased shutdown plan on platform X, stating that this decision was "the most responsible move to protect the community and ensure an elegant exit." This black swan event completely rewritten the price trajectory and market expectations of the ALPACA Token.
Binance Delisting Triggers Extreme Market Movements: From a Surge of 2300% to Countdown to Zero
An announcement from Binance in April 2025 unexpectedly became the catalyst for the dramatic fluctuations in ALPACA’s price:
- On April 24, Binance announced it would delist ALPACA on May 2 due to "low trading volume and insufficient development activity"; following the news, the price plummeted from $0.4 to $0.3;
- The market then dramatically reversed, with a short squeeze pushing ALPACA up 2300%, with the price soaring from $0.029 to $1.47, resulting in a weekly increase of 1100%;
- Key drivers included: Binance raising the borrowing rate cap from ±2% to ±4%, the team destroying 35 million Tokens (18.6% of the supply) to create deflationary expectations, and over $50 million in short positions being liquidated;
- However, this prosperity was short-lived, as the project shutdown announcement on May 27 triggered a single-day drop of 30%, and the Token officially entered the countdown to zero expectation.
Current Situation After Closure: Liquidity Shrinks and Price Struggles Near Zero
As of July 24, 2025, the latest data on ALPACA highlights its survival crisis:
- The price is reported at $0.05, with a 7-day volatility of up to 45.89%, and the total market value has shrunk to 53.88 million RMB, ranking it 1938th globally;
- The 24-hour trading volume is only 99.45 million RMB, but the turnover rate is abnormally high at 184.56%, indicating that speculative trading dominates the market;
- Liquidity on exchanges has significantly shrunk, with the largest trading pair ALPACA/USDT (accounting for 61.1% of the trading volume) experiencing a significant widening of price spreads, and some platforms’ quotes have deviated from the benchmark by more than 50%;
- Compared to the historical high of $8.6 (March 2021), the current price has fallen by over 99% cumulatively and continues to be under pressure.
Core Factors Affecting Prices: From Fundamentals to Market Sentiment Collapse
- Irreversible Impact of Project Termination: The team has clearly stated they will no longer maintain the protocol, leading to the failure of its core functions (leverage mining, lending). The token ALPACA has lost its practical use cases, leaving only speculative attributes. Regulatory uncertainty has also accelerated capital withdrawal, especially as investors in the Asia-Pacific region choose to liquidate due to compliance risks.
- Liquidity Drought and Exchange Withdrawal: Following Binance’s delisting, several second-tier exchanges have followed suit in suspending trading, causing the liquidity pool TVL (Total Value Locked) to approach zero. Currently, platforms like Gate are still open for trading, but buy depth is insufficient at less than $10,000, and large sell orders trigger flash crashes.
- Market Sentiment Turns Extremely Pessimistic: Data from community platforms shows that the discussion volume of ALPACA has dropped by 90% compared to April, with the Fear and Greed Index pointing towards the "Despair" region. Large on-chain transfers are mostly selling activities, and the number of holding addresses has decreased by 40% within 30 days, confirming the accelerated capital outflow.
Future Price Prediction: Technical Rebound Opportunity in Zeroing Trend
Based on the current protocol termination and market structure, the price path can be divided into three phases:
- Short-term (2025 Q3-Q4): The price may fluctuate between 0.02 – 0.08 dollars. Oversold signals (such as RSI < 30) may trigger a short-term rebound, but due to a lack of fundamental support, the rebound will be limited and unsustainable.
- Medium term (2026-2027): If the team does not restart the project or the community fails to fork a viable protocol, the price will gradually approach 0. Exchanges may completely delist it, leading to a total loss of liquidity, and the market cap will drop below 1 million dollars.
- Long-term (2030): Early predictions had optimistically estimated that ALPACA could reach $17.84, but after the project was terminated, the price expectation for 2030 was revised to close to $0. The token exists only as a "zombie asset" in a few wallets, with its actual trading functionality having disappeared.
Conclusion: High-Risk Warning and Investor Response
The case of Alpaca Finance highlights the DeFi protocol’s high dependence on team operation and ecological sustainability. With the protocol’s closure, ALPACA has degraded from a functional token to a purely speculative symbol. Although technical rebounds may provide short-term trading opportunities (such as volatility arbitrage), the risk of going to zero far outweighs the potential gains. Investors should prioritize asset safety and shift to alternative protocols with active development, clear roadmaps, and compliant frameworks, avoiding exposure to uncontrollable risks due to nostalgia or price fantasies.
