The 2026 FIFA World Cup, hosted jointly by the United States, Canada, and Mexico, will officially kick off on June 11. All 48 participating teams were confirmed as of April 1. Italy has missed the World Cup for the third consecutive time, while Iraq returns to the finals after a 40-year absence. Asia will be represented by a record nine teams. This tournament marks the first time in history that three countries will co-host the event, with the number of teams expanding from 32 to 48 and a total of 104 matches scheduled. The final will take place at MetLife Stadium on July 19. As the opening match approaches, discussions about which team will claim the title are heating up.
Polymarket Shows Spain Leading with 15.4% Probability to Win
According to data from Gate, a CEX integrated with Polymarket, the "2026 World Cup Winner" prediction market shows Spain, France, and England with winning probabilities of 15.4%, 14.7%, and 11.3% respectively. This reflects the market’s focus on traditional powerhouses, while uncertainty remains high.
Other major teams have the following probabilities: Argentina around 9%, Brazil about 8%–9%, Portugal 6%–7%, Germany 5%–6%, the Netherlands 3%–4%, and Norway about 3%. Host nation USA stands at approximately 1.6%–1.7%, and Mexico at around 1.1%. Overall, the market’s expectations are concentrated on the established European teams. Spain stands out with its young core and stable possession-based style, leading the odds.
Gate Integrates Polymarket: One-Click Access to Global Event Prediction
As a global leader in cryptocurrency trading, Gate officially integrated Polymarket in March 2026, becoming the first centralized exchange to natively offer prediction markets. Users can participate directly within the Gate App in a wide range of prediction markets, covering major sporting events like the 2026 World Cup, cryptocurrency trends, macroeconomic indicators, and political outcomes. This extends trading logic beyond price analysis to event-driven decision-making.
Gate offers two ways to participate in prediction markets, catering to different user preferences:
CeFi (Exchange Account Path) — Users simply update the Gate App to version v8.12.5 or above, go to the "Alpha" page, and find the Polymarket module. They can then trade directly using USDT from their spot account. This method requires no wallet connection, no gas fees, and no bridging, providing an experience identical to standard trading.
Web3 Wallet Path (DeFi) — For users who prefer self-custody and on-chain interaction, connect your wallet to the Polymarket interface and trade using USDC on the Polygon network, maintaining full control over your assets.
Additionally, Gate has implemented a dual-mode interface, offering both "Prediction Mode" and "Trading Mode." Prediction Mode is designed for beginners, providing a straightforward display of Yes/No probabilities and odds (for example, a price of 0.65 means a 65% chance of the event occurring), streamlining participation. Trading Mode caters to professional traders with advanced tools, including real-time order books, candlestick charts, market depth, and both limit and market orders, enabling users to apply technical analysis and strategy for event-driven positions.
Why Choose Prediction Markets Over Traditional Betting
Unlike traditional sports betting, decentralized prediction markets like Polymarket offer open and transparent information to all participants. Price movements, trading depth, and market sentiment are visible in real time. Prices not only reflect trading activity but also represent the collective intelligence of the market. Each prediction event is structured as "Yes/No" shares, with the market price reflecting the consensus probability of the event occurring. Users are effectively buying shares in the probability of an outcome, rather than placing a conventional "bet."
On the asset management side, Gate deeply integrates prediction markets with spot accounts. Users can view their USDT balance and prediction market positions in one place, and manage orders, positions, and trading history seamlessly. When an event settles, the system automatically redeems winning contracts for stablecoins at a 1:1 ratio and transfers them to the spot account.
How to Participate in World Cup Winner Predictions on Gate
Getting started is simple: update your Gate App → log in → go to the Alpha page → select the Polymarket module → choose the "2026 World Cup Winner" event → choose your outcome (Yes/No) → enter your amount and place your order. Users can execute trades directly from the event list, streamlining the process and enabling quick responses to market changes. The platform also features AI-powered automatic translation, making it easy for non-English speakers to participate.
To celebrate the Polymarket integration, Gate has launched a special sports prediction season. Users can participate in prediction trading for global events such as the UEFA Champions League, NBA Playoffs, and F1 Grand Prix, with the chance to win generous rewards.
Rational Participation and Risk Management
Prediction markets carry inherent uncertainties. Main risks include rapid price fluctuations, information gaps that may affect judgment, and market sentiment that can diverge from actual probabilities. Users are encouraged to thoroughly understand the event before participating, avoid blindly following trends, diversify investments, set reasonable stop-loss points, and make rational decisions.
Conclusion
As the countdown to the 2026 World Cup continues, crypto prediction markets offer fans and investors a new way to get involved. According to Polymarket data, Spain leads the favorites with a 15.4% chance of winning, followed by France and England. With Gate’s native Polymarket integration, users can participate in World Cup winner predictions directly with USDT, enjoying the same seamless experience as regular trading—no complicated on-chain steps required. Whether you’re a casual fan or a professional trader, Gate App lets you quickly access prediction markets and leverage collective intelligence to get ahead of the game.
