The primary driver behind the recent surge in oil prices is escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. On February 28, following the joint US-Israeli "Epic Fury Operation" against Iran, the Strait of Hormuz effectively entered a state of blockade. As the world’s most critical oil transit route, the Strait of Hormuz handles nearly a quarter of global oil and natural gas shipments. According to Kpler data, the eight Gulf nations’ average daily crude oil exports have plummeted from 25.13 million barrels in February to just 9.71 million barrels—a staggering 61% drop.
On April 2, President Trump announced in a televised address that the US had achieved a "rapid, decisive, and overwhelming victory" in its conflict with Iran, but also hinted that strikes could escalate in the short term. He stated that the Strait of Hormuz would "naturally" reopen once the conflict ended. This statement shattered market expectations for an imminent resolution, causing oil prices to soar.
Most institutions now believe oil prices will remain above $100 in the near term. Bank of America’s economics team predicts Brent crude will average $92.50 in 2026, with prices hovering around $100 for the remainder of this year. UOB maintains its forecast that Brent crude will trade at $110 in Q2 and $100 in Q3. Macquarie Group’s global oil strategist, Vikas Dwivedi, takes an even more aggressive stance: if the US and Iran fail to reconcile by the end of April, oil prices could spike to $150 per barrel, and in the worst-case scenario, reach as high as $200.
The supply gap continues to widen. Guosen Securities analysis suggests the Strait of Hormuz blockade has created a crude oil supply deficit of 7.4 million barrels per day. April’s oil supply gap is expected to double that of March, plunging global energy trade into a "high-cost, low-efficiency" predicament. The near-month spread for WTI crude widened to over $16 per barrel at one point—the largest premium ever recorded—reflecting extreme market expectations of imminent supply shortages.
Gate XBR Contract Trading Volume Ranks First Globally
Amid volatile, high-priced oil markets, trading activity in crude oil derivatives has surged. According to the latest data from CoinGlass, XBR contracts saw a 24-hour trading volume of $20.98 million across all platforms, with open interest totaling $6.39 million. Of this, Gate’s XBR perpetual contracts accounted for $19.4 million in 24-hour trading volume and $4.38 million in open interest, representing a dominant 92.5% share of total volume. Both core metrics rank Gate as the leading exchange globally.
It’s worth noting that Gate’s leadership in crude oil derivatives is the result of sustained effort, not overnight success. Since March 2026, Gate has consistently maintained its industry-leading position in two major crude oil contracts. On March 9, Gate’s XBR contract reached $12 million in 24-hour trading volume—a 951.37% month-over-month increase. XTI contracts hit $21.15 million, up 397.08%, with both contracts topping global rankings. On April 1, as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz intensified, Gate’s XBR contract volume rose to $8.84 million, up 50.38%, while XTI contracts climbed to $11.68 million, up 16.37%. By April 2, XBR contract volume further surged to $19.4 million, widening Gate’s lead.
This clear trend demonstrates that, in high-volatility markets driven by geopolitical risk, capital is increasingly concentrating in Gate’s energy derivatives segment. Gate’s liquidity advantage in crude oil contracts continues to strengthen.
Gate TradFi: The Global Asset Allocation Gateway for Crypto Users
Gate’s dominance in crude oil contracts is underpinned by its robust TradFi (traditional finance) product lineup. Gate pioneered a commodity contract segment covering XBRUSDT (Brent crude) and XTIUSDT (WTI crude) perpetual contracts, offering 24/7 trading, USDT settlement, and up to 100x leverage. Users don’t need to switch to traditional brokerage platforms; a single Gate account enables simultaneous trading of cryptocurrencies and traditional financial assets, delivering true "one-stop" multi-asset allocation.
Gate TradFi’s liquidity advantage is particularly notable. As of the end of March 2026, cumulative trading volume on Gate TradFi surpassed $100 billion, with daily peak volumes exceeding $20 billion—on par with mainstream mid-sized traditional brokerages worldwide. Gate’s ranking as third in spot markets and fourth in derivatives among centralized exchanges provides a solid liquidity foundation for its TradFi business.
To address the volatility of commodities, Gate TradFi has introduced flexible leverage mechanisms. Brent crude contracts support up to 500x leverage, allowing users to freely adjust leverage based on their risk preferences. When market trends are clear, high leverage can amplify potential returns; during heightened volatility, users can lower leverage to manage risk exposure.
A recent report from Gate Research Institute highlights that, amid increased macro volatility and stronger cross-market linkages in 2026, crypto traders are seeking stablecoin-denominated, composable, and 24/7 executable macro risk tools. Gate has split macro trading into two complementary paths: Gate TradFi offers a professional trading gateway aligned with traditional market rules, while USDT-settled macro perpetual contracts enable stocks, metals, indices, forex, and commodities to be directly integrated into unified margin and risk management systems within contract accounts.
Conclusion
Looking ahead, the pattern of high, volatile oil prices is unlikely to change in the short term. Three key variables will drive oil price movements: the accessibility of the Strait of Hormuz, the duration of the US-Iran conflict, and the replenishment needs of global strategic oil reserves. Even if hostilities subside, the US, Europe, Japan, and other nations will actively replenish strategic reserves depleted by supply shortages, making a significant price drop unlikely in the coming months.
For investors, periods of high oil price volatility present both risks and opportunities. Gate’s XBR perpetual contracts, with round-the-clock trading, high leverage, and deep liquidity, offer flexible and efficient tools for capturing oil market fluctuations. As Gate continues to enhance its TradFi product suite and deepen liquidity, it is poised to further cement its global leadership in crude oil and other traditional financial asset derivatives.
