DXY & Forex

The Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates steady in April, with a 99.5% probability. Looking ahead to June, there's a 94.1% chance of maintaining rates, a 0.5% chance of an increase, and a 5.4% chance of a cut.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller expressed his readiness to maintain interest rates steady until 2026 if inflation remains a significant concern, despite a stagnant labor market. He warned about prolonged inflation and potential job losses amid ongoing Fed leadership discussions.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, USDKRW (US Dollar vs South Korean won) has dropped by 1% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market

Gate News message, April 17 — U.S. 5-year Treasury yields (benchmark measure of medium-term U.S. government borrowing rates) fell 10 basis points intraday.

Gate News message, April 17 — The U.S. Dollar Spot Index has wiped out all gains accumulated since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict.

Gate News message, April 17 — The rate swap market is signaling a dovish shift, with current pricing reflecting expectations for 15 basis points of Federal Reserve rate cuts by December.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, USDHUF (US Dollar vs Hungarian Forint) has dropped by 0.5% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market

Economists anticipate a 25 basis point rate hike by the European Central Bank in June 2026, primarily due to rising energy prices linked to the Iran conflict. While inflation is expected to peak at 2.8%, it should moderate in subsequent years, alongside muted economic growth forecasts for the Eurozone. The ECB remains cautious about potential future hikes amid uncertain geopolitical conditions.

Gate News message, April 17 — Southbound funds through Hong Kong Stock Connect recorded net inflows exceeding HKD 10 billion as of today.

This week's strong rebound of the New Taiwan Dollar was driven by significant foreign investment in the Taiwan stock market. The exchange rate rose to a 1.29% increase, reaching a recent high. However, the central bank is monitoring these changes to prevent excessive appreciation affecting export competitiveness.

On April 17, Hong Kong interbank offered rates (HIBOR) increased across all tenors, with the one-month rate rising to 2.55143% and overnight rates hitting the highest level since January at 3.36536%.

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson urged U.S. authorities to draw up contingency plans to address a potential collapse in demand for U.S. national debt when he was interviewed by Bloomberg on April 17, 2026 (Thursday). He said that once a crisis erupts, the consequences would be extremely severe. On the same day, the U.S. Department of the Treasury completed the largest debt buyback in a single transaction in history, accepting approximately $15 billion in old bonds maturing from 2026 to 2028.

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson reminded the U.S. to develop a debt-crisis contingency plan in advance to deal with a potential collapse in U.S. Treasury securities. He worries that the fiscal deficit will form a “death spiral,” with debt possibly reaching 108% of GDP by 2030. But former Federal Reserve trader Wang believes a Treasury crisis will not occur; the real threat is a collapse of the U.S. dollar’s credit and runaway inflation. Although the two viewpoints differ, both point out that U.S. fiscal risk will ultimately show up.

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson warns of a potential collapse in U.S. Treasury demand, which could destabilize the financial system and erode confidence in the dollar, shifting investments to Bitcoin and gold. Tether may face risks as well.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighted the conflict in the Middle East as a source of inflation and economic slowdown risks. He confirmed that the Monetary Policy Committee will determine suitable measures to reach the 2% inflation target at the upcoming meeting.

The U.S. dollar index has dropped to near 98 from 100 as easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East reduce market risk-off sentiment. Analysts indicate that the dollar's recent strength was short-lived, signaling a potential return to a "weak dollar" outlook.

The CME's Fed Watch tool indicates a 99.5% probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged in April, with similar projections for June showing a 98% likelihood of steady rates and minimal chances for rate cuts or hikes.

Joachim Nagel from the European Central Bank urged against providing forward guidance on interest rates, citing uncertainties about inflation linked to rising energy prices. He warned that the U.S.-Iran conflict is dampening Germany's economic growth prospects, prompting a downward revision of forecasts.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, USDHUF (US Dollar vs Hungarian Forint) has surged by 1% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman indicated that, given current conditions, the central bank might reduce interest rates only three times for the rest of the year.