I just realized something quite funny about the cryptocurrency story: for years, everyone kept saying that when big institutions entered the market, prices would go up and crashes would no longer happen. But in reality? That story is falling apart piece by piece.
Looking at the numbers, over the past 140 days, more than $2 trillion has disappeared from the crypto market. This isn’t just a normal correction; it’s a truly exhausted and disappointed feeling. Bitcoin is now around $66,228 (latest update is $66.63K), down nearly 50% from its peak. Ethereum is even worse, losing up to 62% of its value. And the altcoins? Solana has lost 68%, many smaller tokens even plummeted 90%.
Strangely, instead of the usual emotions like fear or greed, the market is now filled with a completely different feeling—exhaustion. This is a sign of a deep crisis, not just a regular correction.
I’ve noticed a few noteworthy points. After the euphoric surge of 2025, retail investors are now completely panicked. The 30-day MVRV ratio for Bitcoin is at -10.33%, Ethereum at -14.04%, meaning most recent buyers are at a loss. Historically, such low MVRV levels often indicate oversold conditions and a potential rebound. But the end of 2025 proved that low prices can stay low for a very long time.
There’s also quite a disappointment regarding Bitcoin halving in 2024. People expected it to push prices up due to reduced supply, like previous cycles. But instead of a surge in demand, 2026 has seen weak buying interest. Bitcoin now shows signs of exhaustion rather than growth.
The problem worsens when shifting from block rewards to transaction fees. Although fee income has increased, this transition faces many difficulties, weakening Bitcoin’s image as “digital gold.”
Then, on February 21, Trump announced a 15% global tax. This decision caused investors to flock to safe assets like USD and gold. Coupled with escalating geopolitical tensions, the market became even more fragile.
Looking at mining activity, I see mining difficulty decreasing, which happens when miners have to stop because it’s no longer profitable. Their income also plummets due to Bitcoin’s crash and declining trading volume. To survive, many miners are forced to sell Bitcoin to cover operational costs. This is called “miner capitulation”—a phenomenon that often occurs near market bottoms. But even as it’s a positive sign, this forced selling drags prices down further and slows recovery.
What’s really bad are the liquidations. In just 24 hours, over $600 million was forcibly liquidated. When prices start falling, traders using leverage betting on rises are forced to close their positions, causing prices to free-fall.
The biggest question now is: is this the final crash before halving triggers a recovery, or the start of a new weakening era? Current data suggests that until liquidation rates slow down and MVRV improves, the market could still fall further. I’m closely monitoring these indicators on Gate to see how things develop.
