"Stock God" Trump Plays Another Hand: Softening Stance Before 48-Hour Deadline#Gate13周年全球庆典

On March 23, President Trump issued a high-profile 48-hour ultimatum to Iran over the weekend on Truth Social: "If Iran does not fully open the Strait of Hormuz without any threats within 48 hours, the U.S. military will strike and completely destroy all of Iran's power plants, starting with the largest ones!" This "hardcore" statement quickly pushed up global oil prices, with Brent crude surging at one point, market panic sentiment escalating, and U.S. stocks coming under pressure. Iran responded forcefully in return, stating that if its energy facilities were attacked, it would retaliate against all U.S. and Israeli energy and water facilities in the Middle East.

However, just before the ultimatum deadline and ahead of the U.S. stock market opening on Monday, Trump's stance underwent a dramatic 180-degree reversal: he ordered a halt to the bombing of Iranian power plants and announced a temporary 5-day ceasefire, leaving room for negotiations.

This "tough first, then soft" maneuver instantly reversed the market, with oil prices pulling back and stocks rebounding. Investors familiar with Trump's style have already summarized this pattern as the "TACO trade" (Trump Always Chickens Out). As early as the 2025 tariff war period, this acronym became popular on Wall Street: Trump frequently makes tough statements to create panic and drive down asset prices, then "backs down" or delays, causing the market to quickly rebound for profits. This Iran incident is viewed as the latest version of TACO: extreme pressure first, causing oil prices/panic assets to surge, then rapid softening, triggering short covering and risk asset rebounds.

Some analysts point out that this "high open, low close" trading technique has become one of the signature styles of Trump's second term, especially proving effective when geopolitical and trade negotiations proceed on dual fronts. Currently, the U.S.-Israel war against Iran has entered its 4th week, the Strait of Hormuz remains not fully open, ground troop movement signs are obvious, but whether Trump's "bombing pause + 5-day ceasefire" is just another round of TACO or a genuine shift toward diplomatic resolution still requires observation of developments over the next 48 hours.