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Today's Market Overview -- Today is really full of undercurrents....
Took a look around the market and found that this string right now has both bulls and bears stretched tight...
Let's look at the data first, then draw conclusions..
Today let's talk about OI... The entire Asia session shows OI in a steady uptrend posture... indicating that at this position, both bulls and bears are entering in large volumes...
(Figure 1)
The current OI has already reached recent highs...
Both long and short leverage are stretched tight.. (although still some distance from extreme values, see middle of Figure 1)
But a breakout in any direction already has massive fuel behind it
After CME opens and Monday's volatility should be significant
Meanwhile, the total delta of the entire Asia session contract market is in a declining state, indicating that actively entered short positions outnumber actively entered long positions.
This can also be seen from Figure 2 on Binance and Bybit's net long and net short.
Actively entered short positions on both sides outnumber long positions by about 1.5x.
Meanwhile, quite a few short positions were actively chased in after Trump's 48-hour message (70k->68k segment)
While long positions were averaged down during the entire Asia session.
So since both bulls and bears have entered, there will be potential liquidation/stop-loss liquidities...
Currently from estimated liquidations, long liquidations on all three exchanges are heavily concentrated between 67k~68k...
(CME opening is nearby is a danger point, will explain in detail in today's plan below)
Of course, the above liquidations are estimates.. let's look at the obvious liquidations and stop-losses on Hyperliquid..
( Figure 4)
Because positions on Hyperliquid chain are public, there indeed are quite a few obvious liquidations visible below 68k (right side of Figure 4)
However, stop-loss orders are unusually scarce, not many hanging around 68k (compared to the Asia session liquidation earlier today)
Meanwhile, both short liquidations and stop-losses are around 70k..
So today's situation is yet another moment where both bulls and bears call each other idiots...
Let's continue looking at other things..