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Today's Market Overview -- K-line and capital flow both look quite boring, but options traders seem unable to hold back?
Woke up over the weekend and saw the movement was rather dull... stayed above 70K for over 12 hours...
Checked this morning and watched for an hour or two, always wondering what lies beneath the calm of this K-line—is it just emotional calmness, or is there something hidden?
Let me break it down a bit.
Chart 1 Order Book
Currently in Asian trading, there's a large spot order from OKX at 70500.. quite uncommon, we usually see more from Binance and Coinbase..
A suddenly appeared aggregate order, but couldn't find it on Binance or Coinbase. After filtering, found it was on OKX.
This is also one of the factors supporting Asian trading at 70500.. though of course the lack of selling pressure is the bigger factor.
Because, Chart 2, the CVD of both contracts and spot from Saturday on the capital side is very calm... so beneath the calmness of this K-line, the sentiment in capital is equally serene....
Nothing unusual.
Rather, what's interesting is the attitude options traders are showing toward short-term movements through the 1D skew.
Chart 3 Yesterday during European hours, before US stock market open, BTC just returned from 71.3k to around 70.5k..
Yet options traders were already sharply betting that BTC might have dropped significantly yesterday.. skew fell to the -20% range..
( indicating put IV is higher, bought at more expensive prices)
Then, after US stocks opened, everyone found BTC was holding quite strong.. options traders also started reverse betting..
Skew began rising, indicating everyone started buying put protection to close positions and sell, lowering put IV. No longer buying downside protection.. might have even bought some calls betting on upside.
Further into today's Asian session, reached around 0%..
One more thing: over the past bear market period, the neutral range was around -10% because funds kept buying downside protection during the bear market, so overall puts stayed relatively expensive.
Now at 0%.. beyond short-term options traders not buying downside protection, can even be interpreted as options traders betting there might be an upside move before the weekend or CME open...
Other term skews are also gradually returning to neutral range.. indicating mid-term sentiment buying downside protection has also eased.. back to normal.
This is options traders' sentiment.
Chart 4 Looking at current market stop-loss levels
Overall unchanged from yesterday.. in the sideways range, both bulls and bears are densely betting.. stop-loss levels are respectively at the upper and lower edges of the current range.
So for the weekend, my focus continues on yesterday's two ranges: 71~72k and 68~69k...