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【BTC Short-term Rebound to 74000, Focus on Reducing Position and Trading】
The Federal Reserve meeting has concluded with an overall hawkish tone: maintaining interest rates unchanged, only one rate cut expected within the year, while raising inflation expectations and signaling no exclusion of rate hikes. Overall, this exerts certain pressure on market liquidity.
On the chart, BTC has already reacted in advance, accelerating downside after breaking below 73000, currently fluctuating around 70700. In the short term, there is a certain rebound demand here.
If there is a pullback, pay close attention to the 74000 area, which is the pullback confirmation level after the trendline breakdown and a key zone for short-term position reduction and trading.
From a structural perspective, daily chart bearish divergence has formed, and the probability of a rebound top is increasing. Therefore, it is not recommended to blindly chase rallies during the rebound process.
Operationally, maintain patience, trade when the rebound is complete, and if there is a subsequent pullback, pay attention to opportunities at lower levels. At the current stage, focus on controlling positions and defensive strategy.
#美联储3月议息会议 $BTC #SEC批准纳斯达克代币化股票试点 $ETH
深夜塵埃落定,美聯儲 2026 年 3 月 18 日 FOMC 會議結論:維持利率不變、年內僅計劃降息 1 次、上調通脹預期、新增中東風險提示。點陣圖(利率路徑):2026 年底:3.4%(年內僅降息 1 次,25bp),2027 年底:3.1%(再降息 1 次,25bp),2028 年及長期:3.1%(長期利率較 12 月上調 0.1 個百分點)。
會後鮑威爾釋放強烈鷹派信號:強調通脹無持續回落就不降息,並提及加息可能性!
上篇分析提到,個人對於行情的判斷是偏悲觀的,其中一個核心原因就是擔憂這次會議在不降息的基礎上傳出更多利空消息,果不其然,不幸言中。
大餅提前反應,跌破了73000的支撐後有所加速,此刻位於70000附近支撐震盪【如圖一】
整體來看,大餅這裡還是有一定支撐的,可能會插針插破70000,但存在小幅反彈需求,反抽上去確認趨勢線破位的概率還是較大的,當前的位置是在74000附近【如圖二】
週期放大來看,日線頂背離已經成型,2日線一陰吞三陽,這些都指向這波反彈可能見頂的預期,因此小反彈不太建議大家入場操作【如圖三】
操作上如果參考了我們的建議在74000到75000區間鎖定利潤減出了倉位,那可以耐心等待下降旗型底邊的支撐機會,位置是在66000附近,這裡進可攻退可守,盈虧比較高。
但要注意一點,如果旗型底邊有效跌破,那麼會有小瀑布出現,創新低是大概率事件,58000到59000這個區間將是更好的搏反彈入場機會!
操作建議:等反抽 74000 美金,考慮出局,然後低位再接回來
#美联储3月议息会议 $BTC #BTC走势分析 $ETH