On Polymarket, 5 accounts jointly invested $65,400 betting that the U.S. military may enter Iran before May, with the current probability at 51%. Trump has proposed a ceasefire plan, and the market shows somewhat eased expectations regarding U.S.-Iran tensions. The Pentagon has already deployed approximately 2,000 paratroopers to the Middle East to strengthen U.S. military presence in the region.

U.S. stocks crypto-related concept stocks collectively fell, with Circle down 20.1%. Against this backdrop, two whale investors simultaneously bought the dip, building positions of approximately 1 million dollars in CRCL long positions at 106 dollars and 103 dollars respectively.

Polymarket prediction events show that a new address purchased approximately $100,000 worth of "No" positions at 88.4¢, with current unrealized gains of about $70. This event is affected by the evolution of the US-Iran situation. As Trump delays military strikes, Iran denies negotiations, and the regional situation remains uncertain.

A subdomain page of a certain CEX requires users to enter wallet seed phrases, raising concerns from security researchers who believe this poses serious risks. Analysts point out that related help documentation has been deleted, warning that the page could be maliciously exploited for attacks.

As institutional investors and quantitative funds enter prediction markets, the industry structure is undergoing transformation. In 2026, prediction market trading volume breaks through $13.7 billion, with quantitative strategies gradually becoming mainstream, adopting mature financial models to achieve stable returns. Core methods include LMSR, Kelly Criterion, and Bayesian updates, with technical implementation focusing on data quality and execution efficiency. Retail investors struggle to replicate institutional advantages due to lack of modeling capabilities.

March 16 News: Prediction market Polymarket shows that bets on "US military will not enter Iran before April" have surged significantly, with someone investing $83,600 successfully raising the probability to 73%. Trump plans to establish an international coalition to ensure the security of the Strait of Hormuz, however Gulf states have denied providing military operation support. Despite Iran's attacks on Israel and US military bases, the US response remains focused on maintaining freedom of navigation in the strait and other aspects.

On March 13, DEXTools completed a $3 million financing round and will launch its perpetual DEX product, PerpTools. It is expected to enter public testing in 2026, having already reached $150 million in trading volume during the closed testing phase, with integrated AI analysis and real-time execution features.