Currently, the international geopolitical game is essentially a propaganda battle without substantive actions. The U.S. side has consistently avoided meaningful negotiations, adopting a delaying strategy, while the other party continues to issue tough statements. Both sides are deliberately creating a confrontational posture but have yet to take concrete actions—neither willing to initiate conflict proactively nor to make the first concessions.

The related U.S. vice president’s travel plans have been directly postponed indefinitely, which already indicates that negotiations have fallen into a deadlock. Both sides are unwilling to even maintain basic diplomatic stances. The so-called subsequent deployment statements seem intimidating but are actually just means to increase pressure, not genuine preludes to action. If there were real plans to go to war, it wouldn’t stay at the verbal hype level; actual measures would have already been implemented.

The so-called ceasefire extension measures are also routine stability-maintaining tactics, ultimately reflecting a lack of better responses at the moment. Without the confidence to confront conflict directly and unwilling to trigger significant financial market turmoil, the only option is to extend the buffer period temporarily to stabilize market sentiment and prevent rapid escalation.

Treating these measures as positive market signals is a clear misjudgment of the situation. The core purpose of such operations is never to resolve fundamental conflicts but to manipulate the rhythm and guide market expectations through rhetoric, competing in narrative control to gain the initiative. Whoever can better control public opinion will hold more advantage.

This directly leads to the current cryptocurrency market being entirely driven by various news factors, with prices fluctuating repeatedly based on geopolitical news. The market shows intense volatility, with prices swinging sharply—appearing lively on the surface but lacking real value support. It’s merely market sentiment-driven blind fluctuations.

On the macroeconomic level, the overall trend has become clear: the likelihood of interest rate cuts is virtually certain, and the hope for liquidity easing to boost the market is just self-comforting. Some also link rate cuts to personnel changes, but such judgments are completely inconsistent with economic logic. Interest rate adjustments depend on inflation levels and economic data, not solely on personnel factors.

Focusing on the crypto market, the previous rapid decline is highly instructive. Prices bottomed out at around 74,700, falling about 2,000 points from the recent high. Although the adjustment isn’t extreme, it’s a clear phase of correction.

The key point is that this correction’s low coincided with the support line of the previous upward trend, which was effectively supported and quickly rebounded. This indicates that the current bullish momentum has not fully dissipated, and the market still retains some resilience against declines.

However, hidden risks are also emerging. Although the market appears steady, technical risks are continuously accumulating. The head-and-shoulders pattern has not invalidated; even if the right shoulder rises, it doesn’t mean the bearish trend is broken. Instead, it looks more like a trap to attract funds—an induced rally.

Especially with such rapid rebounds driven by news, the stability of the trend is poor, and sudden drops are highly likely, trapping late buyers at high levels. From a technical perspective, this quick surge lacks a sustainable foundation; the faster the rise, the greater the subsequent correction risk.

The core driver of this rally is not an improvement in market fundamentals but purely an emotional surge driven by geopolitical news. No substantive progress has been made in the confrontation issues, and a long-term stalemate is likely. Short-term consensus remains elusive, and market uncertainty will persist, possibly triggering a new downward wave at any time.

Currently, prices are in a high-level consolidation phase. There are probably only two possible scenarios: either a rapid decline, reversing the current overly optimistic market sentiment; or a slight oscillation with a push toward 78,000, after which this rebound phase will end.

The 78,000 level is itself a previous high-volume trading zone. Resistance above is very heavy, compounded by head-and-shoulders and potential double-top technical patterns. It’s difficult for prices to break through the key resistance at 79,500. Participating at high levels now carries very high risk; don’t be fooled by short-term market movements. #比特币反弹 $BTC $ETH