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Big Cake mid-term (1–2 weeks, the negotiation outcome determines the market)
Scenario 1: Negotiations go smoothly → Middle Eastern risk is thoroughly eliminated → BTC tracks US stocks, and the halving main trend drives the market; all geopolitical premium is fully washed out
Scenario 2: The Revolutionary Guard turns hostile, reopens Strait confrontation, and the situation escalates again → Oil prices surge + global inflation → BTC’s safe-haven attributes restart, followed by a rapid rally
Additional major logic: Iran uses oil tankers to settle BTC tolls; the ongoing cross-border anti-sanctions demand for BTC continues to expand, and the long-term fundamentals provide extremely strong downside support