Over the weekend, BTC was hit below 71,000 by news about the Strait of Hormuz, then surged violently back to 74,400 yesterday. The Nasdaq jumped 1.23% to log nine straight green days—seriously, this rebound strength is just outrageous 🔥

BTC’s current price is 74,342.56, up 4.74% in a single day.
This round of market action is completely being driven by geopolitics. Last week, Trump said he would block the strait, oil prices spiked, and BTC promptly plunged. The market digested it at an astonishing speed: on Monday, risk assets rebounded across the board, oil prices fell below 100, and BTC directly rebounded too. ETH steadied and then traded sideways around 2,180, but its performance this time is really underwhelming— the fear and greed index is only 12, placing it in the extreme fear zone.

Last night, the signals from the US stock market were even more worth scrutinizing: the CEO of Goldman Sachs publicly called software stocks oversold, directly lifting the tech sector, the Nasdaq 100 strung together nine consecutive days of gains, and the S&P set its highest closing level since the Iran conflict. With US stocks this strong, BTC only got to 73,400—still a chunk short of the previous high at 80,000—suggesting confidence in the crypto market hasn’t fully returned yet.

Also, the Federal Reserve’s March meeting minutes were released: more and more officials are starting to consider rate hikes this year. High oil prices are pushing up inflation expectations, and the current interest rate is still held unchanged at 3.6%; there’s another policy meeting on April 29. The timing is extremely delicate: if the US-Iran negotiations see breakthroughs during the ceasefire period and oil prices keep falling, rate-hike expectations will cool down—which would be a major positive for BTC; otherwise, things look uncertain.

On the DeFi side, there’s a bright spot: USD-denominated TVL has dropped to 94 billion, but ETH-denominated TVL has hit an all-time high, with 25.3 million ETH locked on-chain. This shows that funds really haven’t “run away”—the drop is just dragging down the USD value as prices fall, which is a concrete positive signal.

My take: In the short term, BTC is likely to trade in a range of 71,000–75,000 with a slight bullish tilt, with geopolitical risk as the biggest variable. If oil prices keep falling and US stocks keep strengthening, it’s still possible to test 80,000 in April. But don’t go all-in on a “YOLO” position—US-Iran tensions can flip on you at any moment, and that weekend plunge is still fresh.

Do you think BTC can surge to 80,000 in April? Or will this Hormuz “time bomb” explode again?