$ETH Last night, during the live broadcast, I mentioned that the extreme point to take a short position was 2386, but I didn’t give more than that! I didn’t expect it to rally so sharply! From the current market structure, it looks like it’s consolidating sideways at high levels. Is it just going to range and adjust, or is it a bull trap to lure in more buyers before a drop? First, looking at the four-hour timeframe, the MACD and RSI are in a sub-healthy state, so there’s a high likelihood that the market is distributing at high levels right now. The key resistance level to watch is around 2385—shorts around there. The body of the candlestick cannot hold above the 2390-2396 range. If it does hold above it, the rally will very likely continue. The two points at 2414 and 2429 can be used for shorting to buy back on the pullback. So, has this bear market turned into a bull market?

On the weekly level, it’s clear that the downtrend line has broken for the second time. The major upward trend line has already returned. If this week the price can truly hold above 2300, then it really could be time to welcome a solid upswing. But based on historical cycles for the transition from bear to bull markets, the timeline isn’t enough yet—at the very least, it would be in the second half of the year. And the US stock market bubble is still very large. For the bottom of this round of the bear market, I still firmly believe it’s around 1410. As for why it has risen so much—after all, crypto is a safe-haven asset, so a move up by a few hundred points is normal.

So, all investors must stay rational and not blindly chase the rally. The views above are for personal reference only and do not constitute investment advice!