In the short term, regarding the market for $BTC , if we look at it from the news perspective, this is my personal understanding: the US and Iran will trade blows—then stop to talk, then fight again, and then talk again—through countless back-and-forth swings, threats, and TACO. Correspondingly, BTC’s market has been playing out as: hit it and it drops, stop it and it rises; it stays rangebound during negotiations; after negotiations break down, it plunges, while TACO surges. It’s completely dominated by the news. For the vast majority of retail traders, when it comes to contracts, either you manage your position size—or just stay on the sidelines. After all, money can’t be made forever, but you can definitely lose it all.