"Circle: More Stable Chassis, Valuation Still Not Sexy Enough" (Author: Jiami Shidi @oyoovi)

The author believes that when CRCL approaches $90, the market has already priced in optimistic expectations such as the continuous expansion of USDC, manageable downward pressure on interest rates, and channel revenue sharing not further eroding profits.
The article points out that Circle's foundation is indeed more stable than in the previous cycle, with significant improvements in USDC transparency, institutional acceptance, and resilience in a bear market, but the company's current 96% of revenue still mainly comes from reserve earnings. Essentially, it remains a stablecoin reserve income company deeply tied to interest rates, USDC stock, and channel revenue sharing structures, rather than a "Visa for payments" that has completed its transformation.
Against the backdrop of distribution channels like Coinbase continuing to take profits and interest rates remaining a key macro variable, the author judges that although Circle is a high-quality asset, the odds are not very favorable when approaching $90. It is currently more appropriate to define it as a "more stable chassis, not cheap valuation" core stablecoin asset, rather than a high-probability buy point.
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